Horiguchi owns the tested résumé and the hotter run, but Kape holds the sharper physical tools for this pairing. The reach and southpaw look let Kape fire power shots from range, where his knockout threat lives, while Horiguchi's improving distance management and stand-up defense are built to neutralize exactly that. If Horiguchi closes the gap and threatens level changes, his submission danger becomes the central concern over five rounds.

Early, Stirling's power and reach advantage make the opening exchanges dangerous for Cutelaba, who gives up 10 cm of reach against an orthodox-southpaw look that widens the angles. Cutelaba's route runs through his level changes: if he can close distance and get Stirling down, his submission threat becomes the central danger on the mat. Keeping it standing serves Stirling; a scramble on the ground tilts things toward Cutelaba over three rounds.

Amil's volume and pressure meet Rodriguez's durability and cardio. If Amil can keep the fight standing and work behind his output, his height helps him operate at range. Rodriguez's path runs through his gas tank and his knack for returning to his feet, dragging Amil into deeper waters where pace matters. Over three rounds, whether Amil's pressure stays as heavy late is the central question.

Baghdasaryan carries the UFC-tested résumé, but the matchup-specific tools lean toward Magomedov's finishing. His submission threat on the ground is the central danger here, so Baghdasaryan's priority becomes keeping exchanges off the mat and denying scrambles that turn into bad positions. With only three rounds, Magomedov's habit of forcing a finish rather than leaning on scorecards shapes the pace. The crossed stances shift the striking angles for both.

Oliveira carries the early finishing danger and the steadier tank if this reaches the third, while Fili's length and rising top game matter most once exchanges tighten up. The central question is range: Fili's reach gives him room to work from the outside, but Oliveira's finishing threat makes every clean entry costly. If Fili drags it to the mat and controls, he neutralizes the pace gap; if it stays standing and long, Oliveira's power stays live across three rounds.

Lima's finishing threat lives early and grows through the fight: he can get Borjas down and go to work from top, where his recent submission chances become relevant across three rounds. On the feet, his range control and striking defense, plus a 5 cm height edge, shape the exchanges. Borjas needs to stay off his back and avoid long stretches under control, because that's where this fight tilts toward Lima's strongest tools.

On the mat, Nascimento's top pressure and submission threat are the central danger, and his reach helps him close into grappling exchanges. If he lands takedowns, Raposo has to work back to his feet rather than settle underneath. The counter is time: Raposo's cardio grows in value the longer this stays competitive across three rounds, especially if his tightened defense keeps early scrambles from turning into finishes.

Bolanos owns the tested defensive tools, but Aswell brings the matchup-specific pressure to test them. The fight hinges on the striking: if Aswell closes space and forces volume, his power becomes live, while Bolanos' chin and distance control are built to absorb that and keep things at range. Over three rounds, Aswell's edge in holding pace late matters if Bolanos can't keep him at the end of his strikes early.