← UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi
Michael Aswell Jr. vs Gaston Bolanos
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06-20
68.9%
Model
76.9%
Market
1.25
Odds
-8.1
Edge (pp)
Style Matchup
provisional · 4 UFC fightsprovisional · 4 fights
STRIKING
P85
Striking Initiative
P30
P89
Volume
P48
P31
Striking Efficiency
P56
P79
Range Sniper
P37
P28
Kickboxing
P61
P5
Clinch Striking
P42
P33
Defensive Striking
P40
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P39
Wrestling
P43
P7
Pressure Wrestling
P18
P57
Top Control
P22
P1
Submission
P1
P60
Anti-Wrestling
P18
P83
Grappling Defense
P7
P29
Scrambler
P80
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P86
Power
P28
P35
Finisher
P52
P72
Damage Resistance
P31
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P47
Fast Starter
P1
P36
Pace
P17
P52
Late Fighter
P15
GLOBAL
P29
Versatility
P15
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
Jr.Bolanos
6.59Landed / min3.28
7.73Absorbed / min2.40
38%Accuracy49%
51%Defense51%
0.95KD / 150.00
0.00KD abs / 150.33
Grappling / Wrestling
Jr.Bolanos
0.47TD / 150.66
0.47TD att / 150.66
100%TD accuracy100%
—TD defense43%
1:27Control / 152:02
0.00Sub att / 150.00
Targets
Jr.Bolanos
Head81%|46%
Body15%|23%
Leg3%|31%
Position
Jr.Bolanos
Distance93%|70%
Clinch2%|6%
Ground5%|23%
Ranking evolution Jr. Bolanos
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Michael Aswell Jr.
Michael Aswell Jr. brings pressure and output on the feet, backing his striking with recent knockout power and a run of finishes. He carries 11-4 across all organizations and has held up well under fire lately, with cardio that lets him keep a pace into the later going.
Gaston Bolanos
Gaston Bolanos leans on cleaner distance management and stand-up defense, and his durability stands out as a real asset when exchanges heat up. He sits at 8-5 overall and 2-2 in the UFC, the older man here by eight years, and has been out for over 13 months.
Matchup Read
Bolanos owns the tested defensive tools, but Aswell brings the matchup-specific pressure to test them. The fight hinges on the striking: if Aswell closes space and forces volume, his power becomes live, while Bolanos' chin and distance control are built to absorb that and keep things at range. Over three rounds, Aswell's edge in holding pace late matters if Bolanos can't keep him at the end of his strikes early.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Bolanos can keep Aswell at range or gets drawn into the pressure and volume exchanges he wants.
- Durability test: how Bolanos' chin holds up once Aswell starts landing the power shots that have been finishing fights.
- Late rounds: if the pace stays high into round three, watch whether Aswell's output holds up better.
Key Uncertainty
Bolanos comes in off more than 13 months out of competition, which leaves some question over how sharp his timing and distance control look early against sustained pressure.