← UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi
Christian Rodriguez vs Hyder Amil
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06-20
53.1%
Model
58.4%
Market
1.65
Odds
-5.3
Edge (pp)
established · 9 UFC fightsestablished · 9 fights
Style Matchup
limited sample · 5 UFC fightslimited · 5 fights
STRIKING
P46
Striking Initiative
P100
P42
Volume
P99
P81
Striking Efficiency
P97
P37
Range Sniper
P89
P53
Kickboxing
P94
P87
Clinch Striking
P28
P59
Defensive Striking
P34
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P69
Wrestling
P26
P66
Pressure Wrestling
P29
P53
Top Control
P22
P59
Submission
P33
P24
Anti-Wrestling
P35
P34
Grappling Defense
P16
P94
Scrambler
P58
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P6
Power
P71
P24
Finisher
P42
P87
Damage Resistance
P40
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P38
Fast Starter
P64
P63
Pace
P86
P98
Late Fighter
P27
GLOBAL
P80
Versatility
P36
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
RodriguezAmil
3.68Landed / min7.39
2.81Absorbed / min4.91
52%Accuracy53%
56%Defense51%
0.00KD / 150.39
0.00KD abs / 150.39
Grappling / Wrestling
RodriguezAmil
1.97TD / 150.77
4.87TD att / 154.26
41%TD accuracy18%
66%TD defense42%
3:42Control / 152:04
1.18Sub att / 150.77
Targets
RodriguezAmil
Head73%|65%
Body18%|21%
Leg9%|14%
Position
RodriguezAmil
Distance67%|86%
Clinch18%|7%
Ground15%|7%
Ranking evolution Rodriguez Amil
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Christian Rodriguez
Christian Rodriguez (12-4, 5-4 UFC) brings a durable recent chin and a notable ability to scramble up from bottom position back to his feet. His cardio holds up over the distance and his pace stays steady late. His striking output and ground control have both been trending upward in recent outings.
Hyder Amil
Hyder Amil (11-2, 3-2 UFC) leans on high striking volume and forward pressure, his most consistent weapon in this matchup. He's taken 3 of his last 5 and his last win came against the No. 30-ranked opponent. He also stands 5 cm taller.
Matchup Read
Amil's volume and pressure meet Rodriguez's durability and cardio. If Amil can keep the fight standing and work behind his output, his height helps him operate at range. Rodriguez's path runs through his gas tank and his knack for returning to his feet, dragging Amil into deeper waters where pace matters. Over three rounds, whether Amil's pressure stays as heavy late is the central question.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Amil's forward pressure and volume force Rodriguez to fight off the back foot from the opening exchanges.
- Grappling: how quickly Rodriguez returns to his feet when the fight hits the mat.
- Late rounds: whether Amil's output holds in round three or Rodriguez's steadier pace takes over.