← UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi
Andre Lima vs Kevin Borjas
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06-20
77.8%
Model
84.3%
Market
1.14
Odds
-6.5
Edge (pp)
provisional · 4 UFC fightsprovisional · 4 fights
Style Matchup
limited sample · 5 UFC fightslimited · 5 fights
STRIKING
P73
Striking Initiative
P16
P58
Volume
P42
P90
Striking Efficiency
P60
P44
Range Sniper
P95
P94
Kickboxing
P72
P71
Clinch Striking
P28
P55
Defensive Striking
P22
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P58
Wrestling
P5
P61
Pressure Wrestling
P23
P89
Top Control
P19
P44
Submission
P1
P38
Anti-Wrestling
P88
P63
Grappling Defense
P77
P28
Scrambler
P42
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P29
Power
P95
P27
Finisher
P63
P67
Damage Resistance
P34
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P27
Fast Starter
P13
P59
Pace
P3
P6
Late Fighter
P88
GLOBAL
P87
Versatility
P11
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
LimaBorjas
4.06Landed / min3.51
2.73Absorbed / min6.32
58%Accuracy44%
55%Defense49%
0.00KD / 150.74
0.00KD abs / 150.49
Grappling / Wrestling
LimaBorjas
1.47TD / 150.00
2.06TD att / 152.46
71%TD accuracy0%
71%TD defense79%
4:14Control / 150:57
1.47Sub att / 150.00
Targets
LimaBorjas
Head45%|76%
Body21%|13%
Leg33%|11%
Position
LimaBorjas
Distance88%|93%
Clinch11%|6%
Ground1%|1%
Ranking evolution Lima Borjas
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Andre Lima
Andre Lima is unbeaten at 11-0, 4-0 in the UFC, riding an 11-fight win streak. He manages range well and defends on the feet, gets the fight down at will and controls from top. His chin has held up, his submission threat has been live recently, and his striking output has been climbing. Stands 5 cm taller.
Kevin Borjas
Kevin Borjas comes in at 10-5 overall and 1-4 in the UFC, with one win in his last 5 appearances. His most recent victory came over the No. 43-ranked opponent, and his last loss was to lower-ranked opposition. He's the busier of the two lately, out only 3.7 months.
Matchup Read
Lima's finishing threat lives early and grows through the fight: he can get Borjas down and go to work from top, where his recent submission chances become relevant across three rounds. On the feet, his range control and striking defense, plus a 5 cm height edge, shape the exchanges. Borjas needs to stay off his back and avoid long stretches under control, because that's where this fight tilts toward Lima's strongest tools.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Borjas can stuff the entries or scramble up before Lima settles into top control.
- Striking: how Borjas handles the range and height gap early, and whether he can work inside without getting taken down.
- Late rounds: if the fight stays standing, watch whether Lima's rising output starts to pile up over three rounds.
Key Uncertainty
Lima has been out for over 15 months, a longer-than-usual gap that leaves some question over how sharp he looks early before any read on his current form holds up.