← UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi
Murtazali Magomedov vs Melsik Baghdasaryan
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06-20
Murtazali MagomedovLow Data
57.1%
Model
70.9%
Market
1.36
Odds
-13.8
Edge (pp)
No UFC data yet
UFC debut · style profile after first fight
Style Matchup
limited sample · 5 UFC fightslimited · 5 fights
STRIKING
Striking Initiative
P84
Volume
P86
Striking Efficiency
P98
Range Sniper
P91
Kickboxing
P98
Clinch Striking
P76
Defensive Striking
P81
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
Wrestling
P7
Pressure Wrestling
P1
Top Control
P5
Submission
P1
Anti-Wrestling
P21
Grappling Defense
P42
Scrambler
P18
DAMAGE / FINISHING
Power
P70
Finisher
P39
Damage Resistance
P35
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
Fast Starter
P4
Pace
P11
Late Fighter
P62
GLOBAL
Versatility
P28
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
MagomedovBaghdasaryan
—Landed / min4.49
—Absorbed / min2.93
—Accuracy57%
—Defense58%
—KD / 150.31
—KD abs / 150.31
Grappling / Wrestling
MagomedovBaghdasaryan
—TD / 150.00
—TD att / 150.00
—TD accuracy—
—TD defense71%
—Control / 150:38
—Sub att / 150.00
Targets
MagomedovBaghdasaryan
Head—|45%
Body—|35%
Leg—|20%
Position
MagomedovBaghdasaryan
Distance—|84%
Clinch—|14%
Ground—|2%
Ranking evolution Magomedov Baghdasaryan
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Murtazali Magomedov
Murtazali Magomedov arrives unbeaten at 11-0 across all organizations, an 11-fight win streak built on finishing ability: he carries real submission threat on the mat and a consistent knack for ending fights before the judges get involved, though his wins have come against modest regional opposition.
Melsik Baghdasaryan
Melsik Baghdasaryan sits at 3-2 in the UFC and 8-3 overall, fighting out of the southpaw stance. His most recent loss came against the No. 41-ranked opponent, and he enters off a layoff of nearly 16 months since his last outing.
Matchup Read
Baghdasaryan carries the UFC-tested résumé, but the matchup-specific tools lean toward Magomedov's finishing. His submission threat on the ground is the central danger here, so Baghdasaryan's priority becomes keeping exchanges off the mat and denying scrambles that turn into bad positions. With only three rounds, Magomedov's habit of forcing a finish rather than leaning on scorecards shapes the pace. The crossed stances shift the striking angles for both.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Magomedov can drag it to the mat and work toward a submission, or Baghdasaryan keeps it upright.
- Early rounds: how sharp Baghdasaryan looks after nearly 16 months out, particularly his timing in the opening exchanges.
- Southpaw-orthodox angles: who controls the lead-hand battle and open-side strikes across three rounds.
Key Uncertainty
Reading this is complicated by Magomedov entering on his UFC debut with no top-level record to measure against, while Baghdasaryan returns from a layoff of nearly 16 months since his last fight.