← UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi
Allan Nascimento vs Mitch Raposo
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06-20
56.9%
Model
63.7%
Market
1.51
Odds
-6.8
Edge (pp)
limited sample · 5 UFC fightslimited · 5 fights
Style Matchup
provisional · 3 UFC fightsprovisional · 3 fights
STRIKING
P11
Striking Initiative
P0
P11
Volume
P2
P27
Striking Efficiency
P31
P7
Range Sniper
P19
P59
Kickboxing
P76
P21
Clinch Striking
P21
P59
Defensive Striking
P90
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P46
Wrestling
P69
P62
Pressure Wrestling
P68
P67
Top Control
P42
P99
Submission
P34
P33
Anti-Wrestling
P30
P9
Grappling Defense
P47
P99
Scrambler
P30
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P2
Power
P9
P73
Finisher
P39
P65
Damage Resistance
P61
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P28
Fast Starter
P11
P45
Pace
P5
P3
Late Fighter
P73
GLOBAL
P32
Versatility
P50
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
NascimentoRaposo
2.02Landed / min1.58
1.77Absorbed / min2.56
48%Accuracy42%
57%Defense62%
0.00KD / 150.00
0.00KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
NascimentoRaposo
1.33TD / 152.33
4.25TD att / 157.00
31%TD accuracy33%
40%TD defense65%
5:11Control / 151:45
1.33Sub att / 150.00
Targets
NascimentoRaposo
Head39%|68%
Body20%|27%
Leg41%|6%
Position
NascimentoRaposo
Distance79%|99%
Clinch4%|1%
Ground18%|0%
Ranking evolution Nascimento Raposo
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Allan Nascimento
Nascimento's game runs through his grappling: strong top control once he puts opponents on the mat, with a real finishing threat from there. He carries a 4-fight win streak and a 22-6 overall mark, with 4 wins in his last 5 UFC outings, and holds a 13 cm reach advantage. His recent finishing has been coming at a steady rate against stiffer competition.
Mitch Raposo
Raposo brings a switch stance and a gas tank that holds up deeper into the fight. His defense has been improving across recent outings. He's 11-4 overall and 1-2 in the UFC, with his last win coming against modest regional opposition.
Matchup Read
On the mat, Nascimento's top pressure and submission threat are the central danger, and his reach helps him close into grappling exchanges. If he lands takedowns, Raposo has to work back to his feet rather than settle underneath. The counter is time: Raposo's cardio grows in value the longer this stays competitive across three rounds, especially if his tightened defense keeps early scrambles from turning into finishes.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Nascimento can convert takedowns into sustained top control or Raposo scrambles back up.
- Late rounds: if the fight reaches the third, watch whether Raposo's pace starts to tell.
- Striking range: whether Nascimento uses his 13 cm reach to set up entries from the outside.