← UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama
Allan Nascimento vs Cody Durden
UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · 2025-11-01
71.7%
Model
70.3%
Market
1.37
Odds
+1.4
Edge (pp)
provisional · 4 UFC fightsprovisional · 4 fights
Style Matchup
STRIKING
P7
Striking Initiative
P26
P5
Volume
P27
P21
Striking Efficiency
P42
P2
Range Sniper
P34
P38
Kickboxing
P43
P35
Clinch Striking
P13
P54
Defensive Striking
P18
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P53
Wrestling
P99
P66
Pressure Wrestling
P93
P69
Top Control
P93
P94
Submission
P61
P23
Anti-Wrestling
P36
P4
Grappling Defense
P67
P100
Scrambler
P30
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P2
Power
P30
P64
Finisher
P53
P53
Damage Resistance
P24
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P49
Fast Starter
P89
P53
Pace
P84
P11
Late Fighter
P56
GLOBAL
P25
Versatility
P79
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
NascimentoDurden
1.28Landed / min3.59
0.89Absorbed / min4.34
50%Accuracy45%
59%Defense51%
0.00KD / 150.14
0.00KD abs / 150.55
Grappling / Wrestling
NascimentoDurden
1.55TD / 154.43
4.66TD att / 158.02
33%TD accuracy55%
33%TD defense79%
5:57Control / 156:15
1.24Sub att / 150.69
Targets
NascimentoDurden
Head40%|75%
Body26%|13%
Leg34%|12%
Position
NascimentoDurden
Distance63%|83%
Clinch5%|4%
Ground32%|13%
Ranking evolution Nascimento Durden
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Allan Nascimento
Allan Nascimento rides a three-fight win streak and sits 3-1 in the UFC, 21-6 overall, having taken three of his last four. His stand-up shows sharp distance management and clean defensive work, with that defense trending upward recently. He soaks up damage well and has avoided a recent stoppage loss.
Cody Durden
Cody Durden's strength lies in the grappling. He gets the fight to the mat when he wants it and defends takedowns to keep exchanges where he prefers. He's 6-6 in the UFC and 17-8 overall, having won just one of his last five UFC outings, most recently over lower-ranked opposition.
Matchup Read
Nascimento's recent form and durability meet Durden's sharper matchup-specific grappling tools. Durden's route runs through changing levels and grinding from top, and his own takedown defense means Nascimento can't easily reverse the phase. Nascimento's counter is keeping it standing, where his distance work and 5 cm of reach, sharpened by the orthodox-southpaw angles, let him pick from range. The tension is simple: whoever dictates whether this stays on the feet or hits the mat shapes the fight.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Durden's level changes land or Nascimento defends and forces the fight back upright.
- Early striking: how Nascimento uses his reach and the crossed-stance angles to keep distance and land clean.
- Damage absorption: whether Nascimento's chin holds up if Durden does get top position and starts working.