← UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi
Manel Kape vs Kyoji Horiguchi
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06-20
66.5%
Model
64.8%
Market
1.49
Odds
+1.8
Edge (pp)
established · 10 UFC fightsestablished · 10 fights
Style Matchup
established · 10 UFC fightsestablished · 10 fights
STRIKING
P87
Striking Initiative
P77
P84
Volume
P64
P100
Striking Efficiency
P55
P99
Range Sniper
P47
P98
Kickboxing
P32
P12
Clinch Striking
P44
P78
Defensive Striking
P94
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P11
Wrestling
P59
P30
Pressure Wrestling
P55
P11
Top Control
P55
P44
Submission
P52
P94
Anti-Wrestling
P14
P93
Grappling Defense
P24
P37
Scrambler
P22
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P93
Power
P83
P90
Finisher
P31
P93
Damage Resistance
P88
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P72
Fast Starter
P73
P13
Pace
P76
P90
Late Fighter
P77
GLOBAL
P88
Versatility
P70
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
KapeHoriguchi
5.04Landed / min3.77
4.08Absorbed / min2.13
56%Accuracy47%
57%Defense64%
0.94KD / 150.64
0.00KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
KapeHoriguchi
0.40TD / 151.61
1.35TD att / 153.97
30%TD accuracy41%
81%TD defense61%
0:28Control / 153:08
0.27Sub att / 150.11
Targets
KapeHoriguchi
Head67%|75%
Body19%|16%
Leg14%|9%
Position
KapeHoriguchi
Distance89%|70%
Clinch4%|14%
Ground6%|16%
Ranking evolution Kape Horiguchi
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Manel Kape
Kape brings a 13cm reach edge and a southpaw frame built to fight long. His recent knockout power stands out, and he adds a touch more volume and forward pressure in the striking exchanges. He arrives on a 3-fight run, his last win coming over the No. 4-ranked opponent, with a 22-7 overall mark.
Kyoji Horiguchi
Horiguchi carries a 7-fight win streak and a near-perfect 9-1 UFC record, 5/5 in his last five there, 36-5 across all organizations. His striking output has been trending sharper and his defense tightening, he manages distance and guards against incoming shots well, and his submission threat has grown into a live danger recently.
Matchup Read
Horiguchi owns the tested résumé and the hotter run, but Kape holds the sharper physical tools for this pairing. The reach and southpaw look let Kape fire power shots from range, where his knockout threat lives, while Horiguchi's improving distance management and stand-up defense are built to neutralize exactly that. If Horiguchi closes the gap and threatens level changes, his submission danger becomes the central concern over five rounds.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Kape pins Horiguchi on the end of his jab and straight left, or Horiguchi slips inside the reach.
- Grappling: any scramble or ground exchange tests Horiguchi's submission threat against Kape's willingness to keep it standing.
- Late rounds: with five scheduled, watch whether Kape's power holds or Horiguchi's volume and pressure take over.