← UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker
Tagir Ulanbekov vs Kyoji Horiguchi
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11-22
51.8%
Model
61.3%
Market
1.57
Odds
-9.5
Edge (pp)
limited sample · 7 UFC fightslimited · 7 fights
Style Matchup
STRIKING
P31
Striking Initiative
P63
P19
Volume
P58
P53
Striking Efficiency
P43
P34
Range Sniper
P39
P32
Kickboxing
P31
P82
Clinch Striking
P87
P26
Defensive Striking
P88
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P84
Wrestling
P70
P97
Pressure Wrestling
P59
P97
Top Control
P51
P86
Submission
P27
P79
Anti-Wrestling
P14
P60
Grappling Defense
P16
P87
Scrambler
P26
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P11
Power
P81
P29
Finisher
P24
P72
Damage Resistance
P84
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P83
Fast Starter
P81
P82
Pace
P73
P51
Late Fighter
P71
GLOBAL
P78
Versatility
P56
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
UlanbekovHoriguchi
3.37Landed / min3.60
3.36Absorbed / min2.45
49%Accuracy45%
52%Defense62%
0.17KD / 150.53
0.17KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
UlanbekovHoriguchi
2.94TD / 152.00
7.62TD att / 154.53
39%TD accuracy44%
62%TD defense55%
6:44Control / 153:00
1.56Sub att / 150.00
Targets
UlanbekovHoriguchi
Head82%|73%
Body13%|19%
Leg5%|8%
Position
UlanbekovHoriguchi
Distance75%|67%
Clinch14%|17%
Ground11%|16%
Ranking evolution Ulanbekov Horiguchi
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Tagir Ulanbekov
Ulanbekov's game runs through his grappling: strong top control once the fight hits the mat, and a real finishing threat there, with recent submission success backing it up. At 6-1 in the UFC and 17-2 overall on a four-fight win streak, he also carries an 18cm reach and frame advantage over Horiguchi.
Kyoji Horiguchi
Horiguchi brings 34-5 across all organizations with a résumé tested against elite competition, riding a five-fight streak. His stand-up carries a slight edge in managing range and defending on the feet, and he's shown durability in absorbing damage.
Matchup Read
Standing favors Horiguchi's cleaner distance work and stouter chin; the mat is where Ulanbekov's top control and submission threat take over. The central question is entry: Ulanbekov's reach and southpaw angles could help close the gap and change levels, but Horiguchi's defensive stand-up is built to keep it at range. If it stays vertical, Horiguchi's striking dictates. If Ulanbekov drags it down, his ground finishing becomes the live danger.
What to Watch
- Entries: whether Ulanbekov can close the 18cm reach gap and complete level changes against Horiguchi's stand-up defense.
- Grappling: once it's on the mat, whether Ulanbekov holds top position long enough to hunt the submission.
- On the feet: whether Horiguchi's range management keeps exchanges at distance and off the fence.
Key Uncertainty
Horiguchi has been out for over nine years since his last fight, an unusually long layoff that makes his current form genuinely hard to read against Ulanbekov.