← UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi
Navajo Stirling vs Ion Cutelaba
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06-20
72.0%
Model
71.7%
Market
1.34
Odds
+0.3
Edge (pp)
provisional · 4 UFC fightsprovisional · 4 fights
Style Matchup
established · 19 UFC fightsestablished · 19 fights
STRIKING
P99
Striking Initiative
P74
P95
Volume
P67
P81
Striking Efficiency
P29
P70
Range Sniper
P19
P77
Kickboxing
P19
P32
Clinch Striking
P84
P81
Defensive Striking
P16
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P46
Wrestling
P92
P59
Pressure Wrestling
P69
P53
Top Control
P53
P2
Submission
P48
P21
Anti-Wrestling
P14
P74
Grappling Defense
P51
P28
Scrambler
P22
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P83
Power
P50
P38
Finisher
P93
P67
Damage Resistance
P34
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P24
Fast Starter
P88
P85
Pace
P92
P76
Late Fighter
P26
GLOBAL
P77
Versatility
P41
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
StirlingCutelaba
6.14Landed / min4.18
2.57Absorbed / min3.03
51%Accuracy43%
59%Defense48%
0.55KD / 150.21
0.00KD abs / 150.31
Grappling / Wrestling
StirlingCutelaba
1.11TD / 153.21
2.50TD att / 156.43
44%TD accuracy50%
81%TD defense76%
2:35Control / 153:16
0.00Sub att / 150.21
Targets
StirlingCutelaba
Head48%|68%
Body36%|19%
Leg16%|13%
Position
StirlingCutelaba
Distance80%|59%
Clinch7%|21%
Ground13%|20%
Ranking evolution Stirling Cutelaba
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Navajo Stirling
Navajo Stirling arrives unbeaten at 9-0 overall and 4-0 in the UFC, winning all four of his last four UFC fights. He carries real knockout power in his recent work, backed by forward pressure and rising striking volume. At 10 cm longer in reach, he has the frame to fight from the outside.
Ion Cutelaba
Ion Cutelaba is the far more experienced hand at 20-11 across all organizations, with 3 wins in his last 5 UFC fights. His recent threat lives in grappling: a live submission danger and the ability to change levels and drag the fight to the mat.
Matchup Read
Early, Stirling's power and reach advantage make the opening exchanges dangerous for Cutelaba, who gives up 10 cm of reach against an orthodox-southpaw look that widens the angles. Cutelaba's route runs through his level changes: if he can close distance and get Stirling down, his submission threat becomes the central danger on the mat. Keeping it standing serves Stirling; a scramble on the ground tilts things toward Cutelaba over three rounds.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Stirling can use his reach and pressure to tag Cutelaba before the range closes.
- Grappling: whether Cutelaba lands his level changes and turns top position into submission attempts.
- Distance: how often Cutelaba can get inside the longer frame to work his takedowns.