← UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira
Vinicius Oliveira vs Mario Bautista
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02-07
55.6%
Model
38.3%
Market
2.51
Odds
+17.3
Edge (pp)
Style Matchup
STRIKING
P88
Striking Initiative
P92
P88
Volume
P89
P33
Striking Efficiency
P85
P53
Range Sniper
P69
P46
Kickboxing
P86
P6
Clinch Striking
P67
P73
Defensive Striking
P52
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P64
Wrestling
P51
P51
Pressure Wrestling
P66
P65
Top Control
P53
P24
Submission
P73
P35
Anti-Wrestling
P50
P76
Grappling Defense
P33
P29
Scrambler
P50
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P87
Power
P19
P72
Finisher
P26
P70
Damage Resistance
P70
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P61
Fast Starter
P94
P87
Pace
P87
P88
Late Fighter
P93
GLOBAL
P61
Versatility
P81
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
OliveiraBautista
5.06Landed / min5.58
2.92Absorbed / min4.19
43%Accuracy49%
58%Defense55%
0.50KD / 150.23
0.00KD abs / 150.23
Grappling / Wrestling
OliveiraBautista
1.76TD / 151.48
3.52TD att / 154.56
50%TD accuracy33%
79%TD defense55%
2:52Control / 153:03
0.25Sub att / 150.80
Targets
OliveiraBautista
Head56%|61%
Body23%|27%
Leg22%|12%
Position
OliveiraBautista
Distance84%|83%
Clinch4%|13%
Ground13%|5%
Ranking evolution Oliveira Bautista
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Vinicius Oliveira
Vinicius Oliveira rides a six-fight win streak and sits 4-0 in the UFC, his most recent win coming against the No. 15-ranked opponent. His ground control has been trending upward lately, and he brings a slight edge in keeping fights upright, finishing ability, and holding his pace deep into the fight.
Mario Bautista
Mario Bautista carries a deep UFC résumé at 10-3, winning four of his last five, with his latest victory over the No. 5-ranked opponent and his last loss to the No. 4. The central threat he brings is his finishing danger on the ground, where he can turn exchanges into submissions.
Matchup Read
Bautista owns the more tested record against ranked names, but the matchup-specific tools tilt toward Oliveira. The decisive question is whether Bautista can drag this to the mat, where his submission threat lives, or whether Oliveira's takedown defense keeps it standing. If Oliveira stuffs entries and forces a striking fight, his finishing and cardio edges grow in value the longer it runs.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Bautista can complete entries and get into submission range, or Oliveira sprawls and resets to the feet.
- Ground scrambles: if it does hit the mat, watch who controls position given Oliveira's rising top game versus Bautista's finishing threat.
- Late rounds: whether Oliveira's pace holds up and his finishing pressure sharpens as the fight wears on.