Bautista owns the more tested record against ranked names, but the matchup-specific tools tilt toward Oliveira. The decisive question is whether Bautista can drag this to the mat, where his submission threat lives, or whether Oliveira's takedown defense keeps it standing. If Oliveira stuffs entries and forces a striking fight, his finishing and cardio edges grow in value the longer it runs.

Albazi brings the higher-quality recent scalp and the longer frame, but Horiguchi owns the sharper matchup-specific tools standing. His rising striking output and slight defensive edge at range matter against Albazi's 13 cm reach, since closing distance cleanly neutralizes the length. The danger reverses on the mat: if Albazi drags it down, his ground finishing becomes the central threat, making Horiguchi's improved top control and get-back-up work decisive.

Almeida brings the tested résumé against elite competition, while Kuniev's sharpest matchup tool is his rising striking. That collision defines the fight: Kuniev wants it standing, where his improving output lives, but Almeida's takedown entries and ground finishing threaten to erase that phase entirely. If Almeida changes levels and gets top position, his submission game becomes the central danger. Kuniev's path runs through keeping range over the 8 cm reach deficit and staying off his back.

Barriault brings the more durable cardio and the grappling tools, while Oleksiejczuk owns the sharper matchup-specific striking edge early. The southpaw-orthodox mismatch reshapes the angles on the feet, where Oleksiejczuk's range control and rising volume matter most. If Barriault can drag the exchanges into deeper water or change levels, his pace and takedown work grow in value. Oleksiejczuk's cleaner distance work is his lever to keep it a striking fight.

Basharat brings the cleaner résumé against quality names and the clear grappling threat, while Matsumoto owns the matchup-specific edge in pace. The fight turns on whether Basharat can drag it to the mat and control, where his length and takedowns matter most, or whether Matsumoto keeps it standing and leans on his volume. If this stretches late, Matsumoto's superior tank grows in value.

Walker carries the early finishing threat and controls where the fight happens, able to force takedowns or deny Jacoby's push to the mat and keep it standing. Jacoby's value builds the longer it goes: his volume and pressure, improving top game, and experience against better names matter more the deeper this travels. If Walker can't finish early or dictate position, Jacoby's output and seasoning become the story.

Standing favors Donchenko's volume, pressure and range control, and his finishing power raises the stakes of every exchange on the feet. Morono brings far deeper Octagon mileage and a long track record to lean on, but that experience matters most if he can drag this into deep water and off Donchenko's preferred rhythm. If the fight stays at distance, Donchenko's output and durability become the throughline.

Veretennikov's rising ground control runs straight into Price's habit of scrambling back to his feet, and that exchange sets the tone. If Veretennikov gets top position and holds it, he can steer rounds; if Price keeps popping up, the fight returns to the feet, where his volume and 5cm of reach let him push a busier pace. Price also carries the takedown threat of his own, adding a second path to dictate where this plays out.

Gafurov's takedown defense meets Wiklacz's push to get the fight to the mat, where his ground finishing becomes the central threat. If Gafurov keeps it upright, his cardio grows in value the longer this goes, and his own finishing edge lives in the standing exchanges. Wiklacz's reach shapes the range, but converting distance into entries against a fighter who stays vertical is the recurring question that decides this.