← UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira
Farid Basharat vs Jean Matsumoto
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02-07
56.5%
Model
71.3%
Market
1.35
Odds
-14.7
Edge (pp)
limited sample · 5 UFC fightslimited · 5 fights
Style Matchup
provisional · 4 UFC fightsprovisional · 4 fights
STRIKING
P29
Striking Initiative
P79
P26
Volume
P91
P32
Striking Efficiency
P52
P15
Range Sniper
P53
P49
Kickboxing
P70
P14
Clinch Striking
P48
P76
Defensive Striking
P14
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P91
Wrestling
P80
P77
Pressure Wrestling
P52
P92
Top Control
P39
P66
Submission
P64
P42
Anti-Wrestling
P28
P53
Grappling Defense
P27
P32
Scrambler
P57
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P2
Power
P5
P20
Finisher
P26
P73
Damage Resistance
P76
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P97
Fast Starter
P49
P84
Pace
P89
P40
Late Fighter
P88
GLOBAL
P78
Versatility
P40
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
BasharatMatsumoto
3.19Landed / min5.09
2.63Absorbed / min5.11
47%Accuracy43%
61%Defense47%
0.00KD / 150.00
0.00KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
BasharatMatsumoto
3.74TD / 152.73
8.40TD att / 156.55
44%TD accuracy42%
73%TD defense51%
5:33Control / 152:57
0.47Sub att / 150.82
Targets
BasharatMatsumoto
Head54%|59%
Body18%|15%
Leg29%|26%
Position
BasharatMatsumoto
Distance85%|91%
Clinch4%|9%
Ground11%|0%
Ranking evolution Basharat Matsumoto
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Farid Basharat
Farid Basharat comes in unbeaten at 14-0, 5-0 in the UFC, riding a 14-fight win streak with a win over the No. 40-ranked opponent. His main weapon is getting the fight to the mat, and he pairs that with solid stand-up defense, distance management, and the ability to stuff takedowns. The longer, taller man here, with an 8 cm reach edge.
Jean Matsumoto
Jean Matsumoto is 17-1 overall, 3-1 in the UFC, with his only loss coming against the No. 13-ranked opponent. His standout qualities are cardio and pace: a strong gas tank and the ability to hold output late into the fight. He also carries a modest edge in striking volume and forward pressure.
Matchup Read
Basharat brings the cleaner résumé against quality names and the clear grappling threat, while Matsumoto owns the matchup-specific edge in pace. The fight turns on whether Basharat can drag it to the mat and control, where his length and takedowns matter most, or whether Matsumoto keeps it standing and leans on his volume. If this stretches late, Matsumoto's superior tank grows in value.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Basharat's level changes land and he can hold top position, or Matsumoto stays upright and forces striking exchanges.
- Striking: whether Basharat uses his reach to manage distance, or Matsumoto closes the gap and stacks up volume.
- Late rounds: whether Matsumoto's pace and output rise as the fight wears on while Basharat's control work slows.