← UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira
Jakub Wiklacz vs Muin Gafurov
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02-07
Jakub WiklaczLow Data
vs Muin Gafurov
68.8%
Model
44.9%
Market
2.15
Odds
+23.9
Edge (pp)
provisional · 1 UFC fightsprovisional · 1 fights
Style Matchup
provisional · 4 UFC fightsprovisional · 4 fights
STRIKING
P81
Striking Initiative
P63
P60
Volume
P50
P87
Striking Efficiency
P36
P50
Range Sniper
P35
P72
Kickboxing
P40
P57
Clinch Striking
P64
P32
Defensive Striking
P66
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P29
Wrestling
P16
P2
Pressure Wrestling
P53
P11
Top Control
P57
P85
Submission
P40
P16
Anti-Wrestling
P42
P1
Grappling Defense
P43
P60
Scrambler
P71
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P0
Power
P71
P35
Finisher
P65
P42
Damage Resistance
P40
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P32
Fast Starter
P13
P15
Pace
P69
P7
Late Fighter
P23
GLOBAL
P31
Versatility
P28
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
WiklaczGafurov
3.07Landed / min3.16
2.47Absorbed / min1.90
55%Accuracy45%
36%Defense57%
0.00KD / 150.32
0.00KD abs / 150.32
Grappling / Wrestling
WiklaczGafurov
0.00TD / 150.32
0.00TD att / 153.57
—TD accuracy9%
29%TD defense67%
2:04Control / 153:40
3.00Sub att / 150.00
Targets
WiklaczGafurov
Head46%|63%
Body48%|21%
Leg7%|16%
Position
WiklaczGafurov
Distance83%|72%
Clinch9%|16%
Ground9%|12%
Ranking evolution Wiklacz Gafurov
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Jakub Wiklacz
Jakub Wiklacz rides a seven-fight win streak into this one, with a 17-3 overall mark and a debut win in the UFC. His finishing threat on the ground is real, and he carries a notable reach and frame advantage. His most recent win came against the No. 12-ranked opponent, the stronger recent quality on offer here.
Muin Gafurov
Muin Gafurov, 21-6 overall and 2-2 in the UFC, defends takedowns well and looks to keep exchanges standing. His cardio holds up late, and he carries a modest edge in ending fights before the judges. His last loss came against the No. 21-ranked opponent.
Matchup Read
Gafurov's takedown defense meets Wiklacz's push to get the fight to the mat, where his ground finishing becomes the central threat. If Gafurov keeps it upright, his cardio grows in value the longer this goes, and his own finishing edge lives in the standing exchanges. Wiklacz's reach shapes the range, but converting distance into entries against a fighter who stays vertical is the recurring question that decides this.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Wiklacz can plant Gafurov on the mat, or Gafurov stays upright and denies the entries.
- Late rounds: watch if Gafurov's pace holds and pulls the fight into deeper water on his terms.
- Range: how Wiklacz uses his reach to manage distance and whether it opens level changes against a standing opponent.
Key Uncertainty
Wiklacz has only one UFC fight to read from, and Gafurov returns from a layoff of over a year, so both fighters carry limited recent form to gauge how this plays out.