← UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira
Michal Oleksiejczuk vs Marc-Andre Barriault
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02-07
73.4%
Model
76.9%
Market
1.25
Odds
-3.5
Edge (pp)
Style Matchup
STRIKING
P84
Striking Initiative
P77
P74
Volume
P80
P92
Striking Efficiency
P79
P92
Range Sniper
P80
P70
Kickboxing
P55
P16
Clinch Striking
P95
P64
Defensive Striking
P23
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P30
Wrestling
P6
P40
Pressure Wrestling
P31
P37
Top Control
P24
P6
Submission
P33
P67
Anti-Wrestling
P30
P29
Grappling Defense
P45
P50
Scrambler
P42
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P96
Power
P60
P77
Finisher
P70
P96
Damage Resistance
P57
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P79
Fast Starter
P26
P47
Pace
P36
P35
Late Fighter
P96
GLOBAL
P61
Versatility
P14
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
OleksiejczukBarriault
5.39Landed / min5.58
4.57Absorbed / min5.75
50%Accuracy48%
57%Defense50%
1.54KD / 150.30
0.00KD abs / 150.30
Grappling / Wrestling
OleksiejczukBarriault
0.85TD / 150.30
2.22TD att / 151.29
38%TD accuracy23%
53%TD defense68%
1:52Control / 151:38
0.00Sub att / 150.10
Targets
OleksiejczukBarriault
Head70%|71%
Body27%|21%
Leg3%|8%
Position
OleksiejczukBarriault
Distance75%|66%
Clinch4%|28%
Ground21%|7%
Ranking evolution Oleksiejczuk Barriault
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Michal Oleksiejczuk
Oleksiejczuk fights southpaw and comes in on a two-fight winning streak, his striking output trending upward of late. He manages range and defends on the feet a touch better than his opponent, and his recent form has held steady without slipping.
Marc-Andre Barriault
Barriault, an orthodox fighter, brings the deeper gas tank and holds his pace better as the fight wears on. He also carries a slight edge in getting the fight to the mat and in keeping it standing when he wants to.
Matchup Read
Barriault brings the more durable cardio and the grappling tools, while Oleksiejczuk owns the sharper matchup-specific striking edge early. The southpaw-orthodox mismatch reshapes the angles on the feet, where Oleksiejczuk's range control and rising volume matter most. If Barriault can drag the exchanges into deeper water or change levels, his pace and takedown work grow in value. Oleksiejczuk's cleaner distance work is his lever to keep it a striking fight.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Oleksiejczuk's volume and range control keep Barriault at the end of his punches.
- Grappling: whether Barriault changes levels and can hold Oleksiejczuk down, or gets stuffed at the fence.
- Late rounds: whether Barriault's pace tells as the fight wears on and Oleksiejczuk's output holds.