← UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira
Jailton Almeida vs Rizvan Kuniev
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02-07
Jailton AlmeidaLow Data
68.3%
Model
57.7%
Market
1.67
Odds
+10.6
Edge (pp)
established · 10 UFC fightsestablished · 10 fights
Style Matchup
provisional · 1 UFC fightsprovisional · 1 fights
STRIKING
P9
Striking Initiative
P15
P1
Volume
P60
P5
Striking Efficiency
P62
P1
Range Sniper
P47
P0
Kickboxing
P69
P37
Clinch Striking
P71
P8
Defensive Striking
P19
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P100
Wrestling
P29
P94
Pressure Wrestling
P0
P99
Top Control
P1
P96
Submission
P14
P95
Anti-Wrestling
P3
P63
Grappling Defense
P50
P99
Scrambler
P35
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P8
Power
P13
P97
Finisher
P38
P56
Damage Resistance
P44
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P99
Fast Starter
P8
P92
Pace
P2
P29
Late Fighter
P68
GLOBAL
P27
Versatility
P17
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
AlmeidaKuniev
2.43Landed / min3.00
1.02Absorbed / min3.73
68%Accuracy42%
37%Defense41%
0.00KD / 150.00
0.00KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
AlmeidaKuniev
6.66TD / 150.00
10.58TD att / 150.00
63%TD accuracy—
67%TD defense87%
12:16Control / 150:26
1.96Sub att / 150.00
Targets
AlmeidaKuniev
Head92%|84%
Body6%|9%
Leg2%|7%
Position
AlmeidaKuniev
Distance9%|78%
Clinch6%|22%
Ground85%|0%
Ranking evolution Almeida Kuniev
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Jailton Almeida
Jailton Almeida pairs relentless takedowns with a dangerous finishing game on the mat, where his submission threat turns top position into stoppages. He manages distance and defends well on the feet, carries a sturdy chin, and holds an 8-10 UFC mark including a win over the No. 7-ranked opponent. His 22-4 overall record reflects quality wins against elite opposition.
Rizvan Kuniev
Rizvan Kuniev comes in at 12-3 across all organizations, with his most recent loss to the No. 6-ranked opponent. His striking output has been trending upward recently, giving him a route to make the standing exchanges competitive.
Matchup Read
Almeida brings the tested résumé against elite competition, while Kuniev's sharpest matchup tool is his rising striking. That collision defines the fight: Kuniev wants it standing, where his improving output lives, but Almeida's takedown entries and ground finishing threaten to erase that phase entirely. If Almeida changes levels and gets top position, his submission game becomes the central danger. Kuniev's path runs through keeping range over the 8 cm reach deficit and staying off his back.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Kuniev can hold center and land before Almeida closes distance to shoot.
- Grappling: how quickly Almeida converts a takedown into top control and submission attempts.
- Scrambles: whether Kuniev can create space and return to his feet once taken down.
Key Uncertainty
With only a single UFC fight on Kuniev's record, there's limited high-level tape to gauge how his improving striking and overall game translate against opposition of Almeida's caliber.