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Daniil Donchenko vs Alex Morono
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02-07
Daniil DonchenkoLow Data
vs Alex Morono
80.2%
Model
82.6%
Market
1.17
Odds
-2.4
Edge (pp)
provisional · 1 UFC fightsprovisional · 1 fights
Style Matchup
established · 22 UFC fightsestablished · 22 fights
STRIKING
P97
Striking Initiative
P81
P85
Volume
P95
P94
Striking Efficiency
P50
P84
Range Sniper
P71
P49
Kickboxing
P52
P63
Clinch Striking
P13
P68
Defensive Striking
P60
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P60
Wrestling
P5
P99
Pressure Wrestling
P20
P58
Top Control
P11
P16
Submission
P67
P14
Anti-Wrestling
P67
P44
Grappling Defense
P17
P36
Scrambler
P36
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P98
Power
P17
P60
Finisher
P17
P40
Damage Resistance
P71
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
—
Fast Starter
P29
P99
Pace
P38
—
Late Fighter
P45
GLOBAL
P56
Versatility
P23
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
DonchenkoMorono
8.76Landed / min5.05
2.25Absorbed / min4.87
57%Accuracy41%
72%Defense55%
3.37KD / 150.23
0.00KD abs / 150.17
Grappling / Wrestling
DonchenkoMorono
3.37TD / 150.35
10.11TD att / 151.44
33%TD accuracy24%
75%TD defense47%
3:32Control / 150:55
0.00Sub att / 150.35
Targets
DonchenkoMorono
Head74%|80%
Body21%|13%
Leg5%|7%
Position
DonchenkoMorono
Distance59%|89%
Clinch15%|7%
Ground26%|4%
Ranking evolution Donchenko Morono
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Daniil Donchenko
Donchenko comes in off a winning UFC debut and an 11-4 overall record, carrying a high-output striking game backed by sharp distance management and solid stand-up defense. He hits hard enough to threaten a finish, absorbs punishment well, and his defensive work has been trending upward lately.
Alex Morono
Morono is the vastly more tested name at 24-12 overall and 13-9 in the UFC, but he's gone 1 for his last 5 inside the Octagon. His most recent loss came against the No. 29-ranked opponent, and he's been out for 11 months.
Matchup Read
Standing favors Donchenko's volume, pressure and range control, and his finishing power raises the stakes of every exchange on the feet. Morono brings far deeper Octagon mileage and a long track record to lean on, but that experience matters most if he can drag this into deep water and off Donchenko's preferred rhythm. If the fight stays at distance, Donchenko's output and durability become the throughline.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Donchenko sets his pace and controls range, or Morono disrupts the rhythm and makes it a scrappy fight.
- Durability: how both men hold up once clean shots land, given Donchenko's capacity to absorb and return fire.
- Late rounds: whether Morono's deeper Octagon experience starts to pay off if the fight stretches past the opening exchanges.
Key Uncertainty
With only a single UFC fight on Donchenko's record, there's limited high-level tape to confirm how his output and durability translate against an opponent as experienced as Morono.