← UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2
Diego Lopes vs Alexander Volkanovski
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 · 2026-01-31
50.2%
Model
43.8%
Market
2.19
Odds
+6.3
Edge (pp)
established · 8 UFC fightsestablished · 8 fights
Style Matchup
established · 17 UFC fightsestablished · 17 fights
STRIKING
P51
Striking Initiative
P92
P54
Volume
P75
P65
Striking Efficiency
P88
P83
Range Sniper
P65
P30
Kickboxing
P70
P36
Clinch Striking
P37
P10
Defensive Striking
P75
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P46
Wrestling
P60
P29
Pressure Wrestling
P60
P36
Top Control
P75
P90
Submission
P29
P73
Anti-Wrestling
P97
P72
Grappling Defense
P89
P56
Scrambler
P63
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P81
Power
P65
P88
Finisher
P25
P89
Damage Resistance
P57
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P91
Fast Starter
P73
P25
Pace
P90
P64
Late Fighter
P87
GLOBAL
P58
Versatility
P98
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
LopesVolkanovski
4.36Landed / min6.18
4.77Absorbed / min3.36
49%Accuracy57%
48%Defense59%
0.89KD / 150.32
0.00KD abs / 150.22
Grappling / Wrestling
LopesVolkanovski
0.89TD / 151.67
1.60TD att / 154.86
56%TD accuracy34%
75%TD defense70%
1:56Control / 153:05
1.42Sub att / 150.16
Targets
LopesVolkanovski
Head76%|65%
Body10%|11%
Leg14%|25%
Position
LopesVolkanovski
Distance64%|76%
Clinch8%|9%
Ground27%|16%
Ranking evolution Lopes Volkanovski
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Diego Lopes
Diego Lopes brings real finishing danger off the mat, with a submission threat that makes any ground exchange risky for an opponent. His top control has been trending upward recently, and he's carrying finishing momentum, with 4 of his last 5 UFC wins and a victory over the No. 14-ranked opponent. He stands 13 cm taller.
Alexander Volkanovski
Alexander Volkanovski owns the sharper stand-up, with slight edges in output and pressure plus distance management and striking defense. Once it hits the mat he holds the better top control, and he's shown the durability to absorb damage. His last win came against the No. 5-ranked opponent.
Matchup Read
Standing favors Volkanovski's volume, pressure and cleaner defense, while the mat brings Lopes's submission threat into play. The key tension sits in the grappling: Volkanovski's top control versus Lopes's finishing danger off his back. If Volkanovski keeps it at range and manages distance, he dictates terms; if Lopes drags it into scrambles or a grounded exchange, his ground finishing becomes the central threat. Volkanovski's chin matters in weathering Lopes's power.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Volkanovski can establish his range and keep the exchanges at distance, or Lopes closes the gap and uses his height.
- Grappling: if the fight hits the mat, watch who ends up on top and whether Lopes can threaten from his back.
- Durability: how Volkanovski absorbs Lopes's power in the pocket during extended exchanges.