← UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2
Magomed Ankalaev vs Alex Pereira
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10-04
57.8%
Model
67.3%
Market
1.43
Odds
-9.5
Edge (pp)
established · 13 UFC fightsestablished · 13 fights
Style Matchup
established · 11 UFC fightsestablished · 11 fights
STRIKING
P60
Striking Initiative
P97
P39
Volume
P89
P75
Striking Efficiency
P100
P48
Range Sniper
P99
P72
Kickboxing
P99
P70
Clinch Striking
P67
P63
Defensive Striking
P58
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P16
Wrestling
P20
P66
Pressure Wrestling
P8
P89
Top Control
P3
P8
Submission
P20
P99
Anti-Wrestling
P7
P99
Grappling Defense
P46
P75
Scrambler
P4
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P84
Power
P94
P19
Finisher
P90
P84
Damage Resistance
P73
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P59
Fast Starter
P86
P62
Pace
P9
P45
Late Fighter
P93
GLOBAL
P90
Versatility
P61
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
AnkalaevPereira
3.73Landed / min5.00
2.46Absorbed / min3.50
54%Accuracy62%
58%Defense54%
0.66KD / 150.80
0.09KD abs / 150.11
Grappling / Wrestling
AnkalaevPereira
0.66TD / 150.11
3.11TD att / 150.23
21%TD accuracy50%
88%TD defense79%
3:42Control / 150:16
0.00Sub att / 150.23
Targets
AnkalaevPereira
Head55%|46%
Body28%|27%
Leg17%|27%
Position
AnkalaevPereira
Distance72%|84%
Clinch11%|11%
Ground17%|5%
Ranking evolution Ankalaev Pereira
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Magomed Ankalaev
Ankalaev rides a 12-fight win streak and a 21-1 overall mark, going 5/5 in his last five UFC outings with his most recent win coming over the No. 1-ranked opponent. His strengths sit in the grappling department, where his top control stands out, backed by sound distance management and a durable chin.
Alex Pereira
Pereira brings a 12-3 record with a 4/5 run in his last five UFC bouts, most recently beating the No. 8-ranked opponent. His clearest asset is a 10 cm reach advantage that frames his striking, where his volume and forward pressure carry into a genuine threat to finish before the scorecards.
Matchup Read
Standing, Pereira's length and output press forward, though Ankalaev's distance management and chin are built to weather it. The picture flips on the mat: Pereira is the one more likely to force it down, but Ankalaev's top control is where he can neutralize the striking and bank rounds. The central question is whether Pereira's finishing pressure lands before Ankalaev turns exchanges into grappling and grinds from the top.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Ankalaev can close the 10 cm reach gap without eating Pereira's volume on the way in.
- Grappling: who initiates the takedowns, and whether Ankalaev converts scrambles into sustained top control.
- Late rounds: whether Pereira's finishing pressure holds up or Ankalaev's grinding from the top starts stacking scorecards.