← UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2
Chris Duncan vs Terrance McKinney
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12-06
52.0%
Model
61.9%
Market
1.56
Odds
-9.9
Edge (pp)
limited sample · 6 UFC fightslimited · 6 fights
Style Matchup
established · 11 UFC fightsestablished · 11 fights
STRIKING
P51
Striking Initiative
P74
P67
Volume
P41
P43
Striking Efficiency
P36
P53
Range Sniper
P27
P58
Kickboxing
P1
P27
Clinch Striking
P71
P41
Defensive Striking
P12
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P86
Wrestling
P88
P92
Pressure Wrestling
P97
P81
Top Control
P97
P53
Submission
P99
P44
Anti-Wrestling
P92
P28
Grappling Defense
P86
P27
Scrambler
P96
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P66
Power
P87
P56
Finisher
P99
P79
Damage Resistance
P9
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P24
Fast Starter
P97
P87
Pace
P100
P88
Late Fighter
—
GLOBAL
P60
Versatility
P70
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
DuncanMcKinney
4.34Landed / min6.96
4.12Absorbed / min3.09
44%Accuracy57%
54%Defense46%
0.25KD / 151.69
0.00KD abs / 151.69
Grappling / Wrestling
DuncanMcKinney
3.05TD / 153.39
7.11TD att / 157.90
43%TD accuracy43%
50%TD defense78%
3:34Control / 157:25
0.51Sub att / 152.82
Targets
DuncanMcKinney
Head59%|87%
Body26%|13%
Leg16%|0%
Position
DuncanMcKinney
Distance89%|40%
Clinch5%|13%
Ground5%|47%
Ranking evolution Duncan McKinney
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Chris Duncan
Chris Duncan rides a 3-fight win streak and sits 5-1 in the UFC, 14-2 overall, with 4 wins in his last 5 UFC outings. His most consistent trait recently is damage absorption, showing a durable chin, and his best win came against a ranked opponent, marking him as tested against quality.
Terrance McKinney
Terrance McKinney brings a heavy top game and strong control once the fight hits the mat, plus the ability to scramble out of bottom position and return to his feet. His striking volume and pressure have been trending upward, his recent knockout power stands out, and he owns a 5cm reach edge.
Matchup Read
McKinney's top control and mat pressure meet Duncan's tested durability head-on. If McKinney closes distance and gets it down, his control time and ground threat frame the fight, while his get-up ability limits Duncan's own grappling windows. Standing, McKinney's rising volume and power test a Duncan chin that has held up recently. Duncan's edge in facing quality opposition matters most if this stays competitive over the distance.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether McKinney can plant Duncan on the mat and hold control, or Duncan keeps it upright.
- Early striking: how Duncan's chin holds against McKinney's rising volume and knockout power at range.
- Scrambles: whether McKinney returns to his feet quickly whenever the positions reset.