← UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2
Iwo Baraniewski vs Ibo Aslan
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12-06
Iwo BaraniewskiLow Data
vs Ibo Aslan
53.1%
Model
65.1%
Market
1.48
Odds
-11.9
Edge (pp)
No UFC data yet
UFC debut · style profile after first fight
Style Matchup
STRIKING
Striking Initiative
P90
Volume
P99
Striking Efficiency
P79
Range Sniper
P90
Kickboxing
P82
Clinch Striking
P32
Defensive Striking
P83
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
Wrestling
P10
Pressure Wrestling
P0
Top Control
P1
Submission
P0
Anti-Wrestling
P43
Grappling Defense
P62
Scrambler
P23
DAMAGE / FINISHING
Power
P89
Finisher
P92
Damage Resistance
P64
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
Fast Starter
P3
Pace
P19
Late Fighter
P29
GLOBAL
Versatility
P13
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
BaraniewskiAslan
—Landed / min4.80
—Absorbed / min3.47
—Accuracy45%
—Defense59%
—KD / 150.50
—KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
BaraniewskiAslan
—TD / 150.00
—TD att / 150.00
—TD accuracy—
—TD defense87%
—Control / 150:01
—Sub att / 150.00
Targets
BaraniewskiAslan
Head—|74%
Body—|10%
Leg—|17%
Position
BaraniewskiAslan
Distance—|92%
Clinch—|8%
Ground—|1%
Ranking evolution Baraniewski Aslan
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Iwo Baraniewski
Iwo Baraniewski arrives unbeaten at 7-0, riding a seven-fight finishing run and carrying real submission danger once the fight hits the mat. His finishing threat on the ground is his most consistent weapon, and he hasn't been stopped in his recent outings.
Ibo Aslan
Ibo Aslan sits at 14-3 overall and 2-2 in the UFC, with two wins in his last 4 there. His clear physical advantage stands out: roughly 10 cm of reach and 8 cm of height, giving him a natural frame to work behind at range.
Matchup Read
Standing, Aslan's length lets him fight from the outside and keep space, while the ground is where Baraniewski's finishing threat turns dangerous. The fight likely hinges on which realm it plays out in: if Aslan can use his reach to keep it long, he stays in his lane, but any trip to the mat swings toward Baraniewski's submissions. Baraniewski needs to close that distance and change levels to get there.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Aslan keeps the fight at range behind his reach or lets Baraniewski crowd him into the clinch.
- Grappling: once it hits the mat, watch how quickly Baraniewski hunts for a finishing position off top control.
- Distance: can Baraniewski cut the cage and change levels, or does the length keep him reaching?
Key Uncertainty
Baraniewski enters on his UFC debut with no promotional history to read, so how his ground finishing and unbeaten run translate against this level of opposition remains the open question.