← UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2
Joshua Van vs Alexandre Pantoja
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12-06
74.4%
Model
32.7%
Market
2.94
Odds
+41.7
Edge (pp)
established · 9 UFC fightsestablished · 9 fights
Style Matchup
established · 17 UFC fightsestablished · 17 fights
STRIKING
P98
Striking Initiative
P51
P97
Volume
P53
P100
Striking Efficiency
P72
P94
Range Sniper
P61
P97
Kickboxing
P69
P45
Clinch Striking
P50
P73
Defensive Striking
P13
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P46
Wrestling
P88
P44
Pressure Wrestling
P68
P34
Top Control
P80
P13
Submission
P86
P37
Anti-Wrestling
P79
P69
Grappling Defense
P72
P5
Scrambler
P74
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P77
Power
P35
P36
Finisher
P52
P73
Damage Resistance
P98
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P66
Fast Starter
P96
P46
Pace
P86
P97
Late Fighter
P6
GLOBAL
P93
Versatility
P89
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
VanPantoja
8.86Landed / min4.36
6.36Absorbed / min3.88
57%Accuracy50%
58%Defense50%
0.61KD / 150.28
0.12KD abs / 150.07
Grappling / Wrestling
VanPantoja
0.85TD / 152.80
1.33TD att / 155.88
64%TD accuracy48%
81%TD defense69%
1:08Control / 154:51
0.00Sub att / 150.98
Targets
VanPantoja
Head70%|63%
Body20%|22%
Leg9%|15%
Position
VanPantoja
Distance88%|81%
Clinch8%|10%
Ground4%|9%
Ranking evolution Van Pantoja
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Joshua Van
Joshua Van pressures behind high output and has shown real knockout power in his recent run, which favors offense in the pockets. He riding a 5-fight win streak, most recently beating the No. 2-ranked opponent, and offers some resistance to being taken down.
Alexandre Pantoja
Alexandre Pantoja controls once the fight hits the mat, and his top game has been trending upward, paired with a live submission threat. He's precise at range with solid stand-up defense, rides an 8-fight win streak, and beat the No. 5-ranked opponent last time out.
Matchup Read
Van carries the early danger through his volume and finishing power, while Pantoja's value grows once he closes distance and gets the fight down, where his top control and submission threat both come alive. Van's takedown defense is the gatekeeper: keeping this standing lets his output and power dictate, while any sustained stint on his back tilts things toward Pantoja's improving ground game. Pantoja's slight reach and range defense complicate Van's entries.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Van's pressure and volume land clean before Pantoja closes to grappling range.
- Grappling: how often Pantoja changes levels, and whether Van's sprawl keeps the fight upright.
- Late rounds: if the fight hits the mat, watch Van's scramble urgency against Pantoja's control and submission chains.