← UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2
Mairon Santos vs Muhammad Naimov
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12-06
52.2%
Model
68.6%
Market
1.40
Odds
-16.4
Edge (pp)
Style Matchup
limited sample · 6 UFC fightslimited · 6 fights
STRIKING
P70
Striking Initiative
P28
P74
Volume
P24
P70
Striking Efficiency
P12
P74
Range Sniper
P11
P92
Kickboxing
P29
P32
Clinch Striking
P66
P97
Defensive Striking
P12
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P12
Wrestling
P69
P8
Pressure Wrestling
P63
P14
Top Control
P63
P1
Submission
P25
P21
Anti-Wrestling
P36
P23
Grappling Defense
P63
P29
Scrambler
P79
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P77
Power
P61
P26
Finisher
P35
P56
Damage Resistance
P76
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P1
Fast Starter
P30
P12
Pace
P61
P48
Late Fighter
P13
GLOBAL
P25
Versatility
P16
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
SantosNaimov
3.53Landed / min2.42
2.38Absorbed / min2.89
46%Accuracy41%
66%Defense45%
0.41KD / 150.23
0.00KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
SantosNaimov
0.00TD / 152.08
0.41TD att / 154.85
0%TD accuracy43%
50%TD defense73%
0:50Control / 154:09
0.00Sub att / 150.23
Targets
SantosNaimov
Head51%|62%
Body26%|20%
Leg23%|18%
Position
SantosNaimov
Distance92%|69%
Clinch5%|15%
Ground2%|15%
Ranking evolution Santos Naimov
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Mairon Santos
Mairon Santos comes in undefeated in the UFC at 3-0, riding a three-fight win streak and 16-3 overall. His forward striking, working behind slightly higher volume and pressure, is his most consistent tool here, and a 5 cm reach advantage gives him room to work at range. His cardio holds up well deep into fights.
Muhammad Naimov
Muhammad Naimov sits at 5-1 in the UFC with wins in four of his last five, 13-3 across all organizations. His grappling drives the matchup: his ability to change levels and get the fight down, paired with strong top control, is his primary route to victory. His defensive work has been trending upward, and he owns the stronger track record against quality opposition.
Matchup Read
Naimov's push to get the fight to the mat runs straight into Santos's need to keep it standing and use his range. That's the central collision: if Naimov lands takedowns and settles into top position, his control shifts the fight decisively his way. Santos wants distance, volume, and a longer reach to keep it upright, where his pace over the later minutes can also grow in value if he stays vertical.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Naimov can close distance and finish level changes, or Santos keeps stuffing entries and resets to range.
- Early striking: does Santos use his reach and volume to control the exchanges before Naimov can time a takedown.
- Late rounds: if it stays standing, watch whether Santos's cardio starts telling over the distance.