← UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2
Marvin Vettori vs Brunno Ferreira
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12-06
53.4%
Model
48.8%
Market
1.97
Odds
+4.6
Edge (pp)
established · 16 UFC fightsestablished · 16 fights
Style Matchup
STRIKING
P70
Striking Initiative
P33
P69
Volume
P41
P77
Striking Efficiency
P82
P60
Range Sniper
P90
P77
Kickboxing
P88
P14
Clinch Striking
P20
P50
Defensive Striking
P39
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P61
Wrestling
P50
P53
Pressure Wrestling
P34
P70
Top Control
P28
P72
Submission
P76
P90
Anti-Wrestling
P79
P67
Grappling Defense
P34
P47
Scrambler
P56
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P8
Power
P98
P30
Finisher
P98
P99
Damage Resistance
P57
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P43
Fast Starter
P22
P63
Pace
P26
P15
Late Fighter
P35
GLOBAL
P90
Versatility
P68
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
VettoriFerreira
4.70Landed / min3.15
4.58Absorbed / min3.23
46%Accuracy49%
56%Defense51%
0.05KD / 151.08
0.00KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
VettoriFerreira
1.51TD / 151.44
3.28TD att / 155.06
46%TD accuracy29%
64%TD defense54%
2:54Control / 151:34
0.32Sub att / 151.08
Targets
VettoriFerreira
Head77%|66%
Body10%|21%
Leg12%|13%
Position
VettoriFerreira
Distance87%|89%
Clinch6%|5%
Ground7%|6%
Ranking evolution Vettori Ferreira
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Marvin Vettori
Marvin Vettori leans on output and forward pressure in the striking game, and his volume has been climbing recently. His last win came against the No. 12-ranked opponent, and his form has held steady without a recent slide. Working from southpaw, he owns a 5 cm reach advantage to help him operate at range.
Brunno Ferreira
Brunno Ferreira brings real finishing power, carrying a two-fight win streak and a habit of ending fights before the scorecards. He has won 4 of his last 5 UFC bouts, and his ground control has been trending upward. He also shows sharper distance management and stand-up defense in this matchup.
Matchup Read
The striking phase favors Vettori's pressure and rising volume, with his reach and southpaw angles helping him work behind a jab. The danger phase belongs to Ferreira, whose finishing threat means every exchange carries stopping power, and his improving top game raises the stakes if it hits the mat. Vettori's steadier recent form and pace management grow in value the longer this stays competitive and out of Ferreira's finishing windows.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Vettori can pile up volume behind his reach or Ferreira's defense keeps exchanges brief and sharp.
- Finishing windows: how Ferreira reacts in any scramble or clinch, where his power and improving top control turn dangerous fast.
- Late rounds: whether Vettori's steady output pulls the fight into deep water and away from Ferreira's stoppage threat.