← UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2
Payton Talbott vs Henry Cejudo
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12-06
60.7%
Model
70.4%
Market
1.37
Odds
-9.7
Edge (pp)
Style Matchup
established · 15 UFC fightsestablished · 15 fights
STRIKING
P89
Striking Initiative
P47
P70
Volume
P39
P93
Striking Efficiency
P45
P73
Range Sniper
P37
P51
Kickboxing
P49
P35
Clinch Striking
P66
P15
Defensive Striking
P73
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P19
Wrestling
P63
P26
Pressure Wrestling
P68
P46
Top Control
P73
P41
Submission
P18
P9
Anti-Wrestling
P52
P34
Grappling Defense
P72
P73
Scrambler
P15
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P91
Power
P61
P78
Finisher
P9
P69
Damage Resistance
P85
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P91
Fast Starter
P61
P64
Pace
P65
P46
Late Fighter
P84
GLOBAL
P39
Versatility
P82
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
TalbottCejudo
4.89Landed / min3.82
2.68Absorbed / min3.46
57%Accuracy47%
43%Defense60%
0.64KD / 150.37
0.00KD abs / 150.07
Grappling / Wrestling
TalbottCejudo
0.32TD / 151.84
0.96TD att / 155.89
33%TD accuracy31%
70%TD defense76%
3:16Control / 153:06
0.32Sub att / 150.15
Targets
TalbottCejudo
Head76%|55%
Body16%|30%
Leg8%|16%
Position
TalbottCejudo
Distance63%|68%
Clinch7%|19%
Ground30%|13%
Ranking evolution Talbott Cejudo
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Payton Talbott
Payton Talbott carries real finishing ability, closing fights before the scorecards, and his length is a genuine factor at 135. He works behind volume and forward pressure, switching stances to vary his looks. His ground control and defense have both been trending upward lately, and he's shown he can scramble back to his feet off the bottom. He's 10-1 overall, 4-1 in the UFC.
Henry Cejudo
Henry Cejudo owns the tested résumé here, with proven results against elite competition across a 16-5 career and a 10-5 UFC mark. His last loss came against the No. 12-ranked opponent, and he's been out for 9.4 months since. He's won 2 of his last 5 in the Octagon.
Matchup Read
Cejudo brings the higher pedigree against top opposition, but the matchup-specific tools tilt toward Talbott, who owns a 15 cm reach advantage to work behind and the greater threat to finish. If Talbott manages distance and keeps his volume ticking, he stretches the fight into deep water against a 12-years-older opponent. Cejudo's path runs through closing that range and turning the exchanges into grappling, where Talbott's improving control and ability to stand back up become the test.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Talbott uses his length to keep Cejudo outside or Cejudo closes the gap and gets inside the reach.
- Grappling: if Cejudo secures top position, watch how quickly Talbott scrambles back to his feet.
- Late rounds: whether the pace and the age gap start to show as the fight wears on.