← UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2
Billy Elekana vs Junior Tafa
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 · 2026-01-31
76.0%
Model
65.1%
Market
1.48
Odds
+10.9
Edge (pp)
provisional · 3 UFC fightsprovisional · 3 fights
Style Matchup
limited sample · 6 UFC fightslimited · 6 fights
STRIKING
P5
Striking Initiative
P31
P6
Volume
P57
P74
Striking Efficiency
P96
P73
Range Sniper
P96
P49
Kickboxing
P84
P23
Clinch Striking
P83
P17
Defensive Striking
P51
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P24
Wrestling
P6
P17
Pressure Wrestling
P1
P54
Top Control
P1
P57
Submission
P0
P59
Anti-Wrestling
P7
P45
Grappling Defense
P27
P33
Scrambler
P47
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P61
Power
P82
P27
Finisher
P96
P57
Damage Resistance
P32
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P50
Fast Starter
P16
P2
Pace
P1
P50
Late Fighter
P35
GLOBAL
P34
Versatility
P8
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
ElekanaTafa
2.66Landed / min3.19
3.28Absorbed / min2.49
61%Accuracy51%
46%Defense52%
0.55KD / 150.34
0.00KD abs / 150.34
Grappling / Wrestling
ElekanaTafa
0.55TD / 150.00
2.21TD att / 150.00
25%TD accuracy—
—TD defense69%
2:13Control / 150:11
0.55Sub att / 150.00
Targets
ElekanaTafa
Head65%|84%
Body29%|15%
Leg6%|1%
Position
ElekanaTafa
Distance78%|76%
Clinch0%|18%
Ground22%|6%
Ranking evolution Elekana Tafa
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Billy Elekana
Billy Elekana comes in on a two-fight win streak with a 9-2 overall mark and a 2-1 UFC run, winning 2 of his last 3. His recent work carries real finishing momentum, including a live submission threat, and he holds pace well deep into fights. He manages distance and absorbs damage reasonably, helped by a longer frame.
Junior Tafa
Junior Tafa sits at 2-4 in the UFC and 6-4 overall, with 2 wins in his last 5. The one thing moving in his favor is a recent uptick in his striking volume. He last fought 6.7 months ago.
Matchup Read
On the feet, Tafa's rising output meets an opponent who manages range behind a 5 cm reach advantage and defends well, with the crossed stances changing the angles both men work from. The deeper the fight runs, the more Elekana's cardio and recent finishing form, including his submission threat, come into play. Tafa's path runs through landing early while his volume is live; letting it reach the later rounds plays into Elekana's strengths.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Tafa can land at volume before Elekana settles behind his jab and uses the reach to control range.
- Late rounds: if the pace holds, watch whether Elekana's cardio and submission threat start to tell.
- Grappling: any time the fight hits the mat, track whether Elekana's recent finishing instinct turns scrambles into submission attempts.