← UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2
Mauricio Ruffy vs Rafael Fiziev
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 · 2026-01-31
63.6%
Model
46.5%
Market
2.07
Odds
+17.1
Edge (pp)
provisional · 4 UFC fightsprovisional · 4 fights
Style Matchup
STRIKING
P28
Striking Initiative
P66
P25
Volume
P73
P96
Striking Efficiency
P92
P100
Range Sniper
P91
P88
Kickboxing
P94
P31
Clinch Striking
P66
P86
Defensive Striking
P28
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P9
Wrestling
P49
P2
Pressure Wrestling
P14
P3
Top Control
P26
P0
Submission
P7
P15
Anti-Wrestling
P38
P50
Grappling Defense
P97
P27
Scrambler
P4
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P100
Power
P66
P90
Finisher
P49
P66
Damage Resistance
P60
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P23
Fast Starter
P39
P0
Pace
P18
P35
Late Fighter
P83
GLOBAL
P27
Versatility
P74
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
RuffyFiziev
3.40Landed / min4.77
4.20Absorbed / min4.77
56%Accuracy52%
62%Defense51%
1.51KD / 150.22
0.00KD abs / 150.22
Grappling / Wrestling
RuffyFiziev
0.00TD / 150.89
0.50TD att / 151.22
0%TD accuracy73%
81%TD defense90%
0:29Control / 151:07
0.00Sub att / 150.00
Targets
RuffyFiziev
Head81%|44%
Body7%|40%
Leg12%|16%
Position
RuffyFiziev
Distance87%|87%
Clinch4%|11%
Ground9%|2%
Ranking evolution Ruffy Fiziev
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Mauricio Ruffy
Ruffy carries the finishing power in this one, with the ability to end fights early and a run of stoppages that's given him recent momentum. He's 3-1 in the UFC, 12-2 overall, and works behind a 10 cm reach and 8 cm height advantage. His tank holds up well as the fight stretches.
Rafael Fiziev
Fiziev's main route is getting the fight to the mat, where he holds the clear edge, backed by slightly higher striking volume and pressure. He's 7-4 in the UFC, 13-4 overall, with his last win coming against the No. 18-ranked opponent, though he's taken a recent stoppage loss.
Matchup Read
Fiziev brings the deeper UFC résumé and a quality recent win, but Ruffy owns the sharper matchup-specific tools: finishing power and a long frame to fight behind. The fight hinges on whether Fiziev can close that reach and change levels to drag it down, or whether Ruffy keeps it standing where his power and length work. If it stays late, Ruffy's cardio grows in value. His recent stoppage loss is a factor against that finishing threat.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Ruffy uses his reach to keep Fiziev at the end of punches, or Fiziev presses inside with volume.
- Grappling: how often Fiziev shoots for takedowns and whether Ruffy can stay upright and keep it on the feet.
- Late rounds: if the pace drags on, watch whether Ruffy's tank holds up better over the distance.