← UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2
Oban Elliott vs Jonathan Micallef
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 · 2026-01-31
Oban ElliottLow Data
60.2%
Model
44.6%
Market
2.16
Odds
+15.6
Edge (pp)
provisional · 4 UFC fightsprovisional · 4 fights
Style Matchup
provisional · 1 UFC fightsprovisional · 1 fights
STRIKING
P48
Striking Initiative
P94
P42
Volume
P94
P52
Striking Efficiency
P72
P34
Range Sniper
P88
P47
Kickboxing
P83
P28
Clinch Striking
P25
P71
Defensive Striking
P74
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P46
Wrestling
P29
P38
Pressure Wrestling
P0
P58
Top Control
P29
P24
Submission
P34
P7
Anti-Wrestling
P43
P12
Grappling Defense
P58
P33
Scrambler
P36
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P30
Power
P65
P14
Finisher
P32
P44
Damage Resistance
P45
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P86
Fast Starter
P50
P62
Pace
P20
P6
Late Fighter
P52
GLOBAL
P38
Versatility
P37
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
ElliottMicallef
3.40Landed / min5.67
2.08Absorbed / min4.47
49%Accuracy44%
59%Defense60%
0.27KD / 151.00
0.27KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
ElliottMicallef
1.08TD / 150.00
2.43TD att / 150.00
44%TD accuracy—
55%TD defense—
4:14Control / 150:09
0.00Sub att / 150.00
Targets
ElliottMicallef
Head63%|61%
Body17%|33%
Leg19%|6%
Position
ElliottMicallef
Distance73%|98%
Clinch5%|2%
Ground22%|0%
Ranking evolution Elliott Micallef
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Oban Elliott
Oban Elliott arrives at 3-1 in the UFC and 12-3 overall, with his best asset being the level of opposition he's tested himself against. He manages range and shows solid stand-up defense, and he's proven durable, holding up well when he takes shots. Fights out of orthodox after 7.4 months out.
Jonathan Micallef
Jonathan Micallef is 8-1 across all organizations and won his UFC debut, riding a three-fight win streak. The southpaw carries a 13 cm reach advantage and a longer frame, leans on volume and forward pressure on the feet, and offers a finishing threat both on the ground and overall.
Matchup Read
Micallef's forward pressure and reach meet Elliott's range control and stand-up defense, and that exchange likely defines the fight. From southpaw with 13 cm of reach, Micallef can work behind his length and push volume; Elliott's job is to manage that distance and stay defensively tight. On the mat, Micallef's finishing threat gives Elliott reason to keep exchanges standing, where his durability helps him weather pressure.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Elliott can close or control the 13 cm reach gap, or Micallef keeps him on the end of his punches.
- Grappling: if the fight hits the mat, watch whether Micallef threatens finishes or Elliott works back up.
- Late rounds: whether Elliott's durability lets him absorb Micallef's volume and stay in the fight.
Key Uncertainty
With only a single UFC appearance to his name, Micallef's ceiling against this level of competition is hard to read, and how his tools hold up against tougher opposition remains largely untested.