← UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2
Tai Tuivasa vs Tallison Teixeira
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 · 2026-01-31
52.1%
Model
27.5%
Market
3.51
Odds
+24.6
Edge (pp)
Style Matchup
STRIKING
P30
Striking Initiative
P79
P45
Volume
P58
P58
Striking Efficiency
P96
P89
Range Sniper
P92
P61
Kickboxing
P36
P93
Clinch Striking
P66
P3
Defensive Striking
P43
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P0
Wrestling
P31
P2
Pressure Wrestling
P99
P28
Top Control
P43
P2
Submission
P10
P23
Anti-Wrestling
P29
P24
Grappling Defense
P38
P5
Scrambler
P36
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P96
Power
P100
P95
Finisher
P79
P16
Damage Resistance
P30
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P15
Fast Starter
P58
P6
Pace
P84
P35
Late Fighter
—
GLOBAL
P1
Versatility
P46
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
TuivasaTeixeira
3.77Landed / min9.43
5.18Absorbed / min7.71
47%Accuracy79%
44%Defense50%
1.04KD / 1512.86
0.78KD abs / 1512.86
Grappling / Wrestling
TuivasaTeixeira
0.00TD / 150.00
0.39TD att / 1512.86
0%TD accuracy0%
58%TD defense—
1:45Control / 152:21
0.00Sub att / 150.00
Targets
TuivasaTeixeira
Head59%|73%
Body17%|27%
Leg24%|0%
Position
TuivasaTeixeira
Distance73%|36%
Clinch24%|27%
Ground3%|36%
Ranking evolution Tuivasa Teixeira
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Tai Tuivasa
Tai Tuivasa has shown he can absorb punishment and keep coming, his recent durability holding up under fire. His distance management and stand-up defense give him something to work with on the feet. His last win came against the No. 4-ranked opponent, though he's dropped his last five UFC bouts, and he's been out for 17.5 months.
Tallison Teixeira
Tallison Teixeira brings pressure and output on the feet, backed by the ability to close the show before the judges get involved. He carries real finishing momentum and a 8-1 record across all organizations. His ground control has been trending upward, and he holds a 20cm reach advantage that lets him fight long.
Matchup Read
Teixeira's early finishing threat and volume collide with Tuivasa's proven ability to eat shots and stay in it. The longer frame lets Teixeira work from range and keep Tuivasa reaching across the orthodox-southpaw divide, so Tuivasa's distance management matters most in cutting that gap. If his chin holds and he closes the distance to land inside, the exchanges even out. If Teixeira keeps it long and his rising ground control comes into play, the fight tilts his way.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Teixeira's pressure and length pin Tuivasa at range or Tuivasa slips inside to punch in the pocket.
- Durability test: how Tuivasa's chin holds up against the sustained output early.
- Grappling: if the fight hits the mat, whether Teixeira's improving top control keeps Tuivasa pinned.
Key Uncertainty
Reading this one is complicated by Tuivasa's 17.5-month layoff and the fact that Teixeira has only two UFC fights on record, leaving both at higher levels hard to gauge.