← UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2
Cody Garbrandt vs Xiao Long
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03-07
52.9%
Model
38.8%
Market
2.48
Odds
+14.1
Edge (pp)
Style Matchup
STRIKING
P16
Striking Initiative
P79
P36
Volume
P77
P19
Striking Efficiency
P32
P70
Range Sniper
P59
P36
Kickboxing
P19
P41
Clinch Striking
P93
P89
Defensive Striking
P9
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P28
Wrestling
P26
P49
Pressure Wrestling
P43
P28
Top Control
P67
P2
Submission
P47
P96
Anti-Wrestling
P42
P93
Grappling Defense
P75
P40
Scrambler
P28
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P98
Power
P24
P74
Finisher
P23
P9
Damage Resistance
P69
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P31
Fast Starter
P9
P10
Pace
P74
P50
Late Fighter
P28
GLOBAL
P31
Versatility
P23
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
GarbrandtLong
2.88Landed / min5.38
3.64Absorbed / min4.97
40%Accuracy44%
60%Defense46%
1.03KD / 150.36
0.65KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
GarbrandtLong
0.93TD / 150.72
3.36TD att / 152.89
28%TD accuracy25%
84%TD defense82%
0:52Control / 152:34
0.00Sub att / 150.00
Targets
GarbrandtLong
Head74%|65%
Body12%|22%
Leg14%|13%
Position
GarbrandtLong
Distance88%|65%
Clinch6%|35%
Ground6%|1%
Ranking evolution Garbrandt Long
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Cody Garbrandt
Cody Garbrandt's game rests on sharp distance management and a resilient stand-up defense, backed by a chin that lets him weather return fire. He carries a slight edge in getting the fight to the mat when he chooses. Across all organizations he sits at 14-7, though he's won just 2 of his last 5 in the UFC.
Xiao Long
Xiao Long's most dangerous tool is his finishing threat once the fight hits the mat, and his top control has been trending upward recently. He's the longer man here by 13 cm and brings slightly more volume and forward pressure standing. A deep 27-10 overall, but 1-2 in the UFC against modest opposition.
Matchup Read
Early, Garbrandt's defensive striking and durability are what keep the fight in space, where he can manage range against Xiao's reach and pressure. The longer it stays standing, the more his chin absorbs Xiao's added volume. The picture shifts if Xiao closes distance and gets it down, since his ground finishing and rising top control turn mat time into real danger. Garbrandt's own takedown threat may be as much about dictating where exchanges happen.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Garbrandt keeps Xiao at the end of his punches or lets the longer man walk him down.
- Grappling: how quickly Xiao can close distance and get top position, and whether he threatens finishes once there.
- Scramble battles: who wins the exchanges when takedowns are attempted, given Garbrandt's own push to dictate placement.