← UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2
Sumudaerji vs Jesus Aguilar
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03-07
59.1%
Model
70.2%
Market
1.37
Odds
-11.0
Edge (pp)
established · 9 UFC fightsestablished · 9 fights
Style Matchup
STRIKING
P86
Striking Initiative
P22
P88
Volume
P59
P92
Striking Efficiency
P15
P80
Range Sniper
P38
P85
Kickboxing
P54
P41
Clinch Striking
P46
P93
Defensive Striking
P92
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P5
Wrestling
P39
P21
Pressure Wrestling
P57
P16
Top Control
P16
P32
Submission
P86
P71
Anti-Wrestling
P6
P63
Grappling Defense
P4
P64
Scrambler
P63
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P77
Power
P21
P68
Finisher
P56
P68
Damage Resistance
P68
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P71
Fast Starter
P58
P39
Pace
P43
P93
Late Fighter
P67
GLOBAL
P49
Versatility
P27
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
SumudaerjiAguilar
4.48Landed / min2.79
2.39Absorbed / min2.01
52%Accuracy40%
61%Defense62%
0.31KD / 150.29
0.16KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
SumudaerjiAguilar
0.16TD / 151.15
1.40TD att / 154.02
11%TD accuracy29%
71%TD defense50%
1:09Control / 152:07
0.62Sub att / 151.43
Targets
SumudaerjiAguilar
Head60%|51%
Body14%|23%
Leg26%|25%
Position
SumudaerjiAguilar
Distance80%|86%
Clinch8%|11%
Ground12%|3%
Ranking evolution Sumudaerji Aguilar
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Sumudaerji
Sumudaerji brings a sizable physical build to flyweight, with a 25 cm reach advantage and the length to work from the outside as a southpaw. His defense has been tightening up lately, and when fights hit the mat he's shown he can scramble off his back and get the action standing again. Comes in on a two-fight win streak.
Jesus Aguilar
Jesus Aguilar has won four of his last five in the UFC, with his striking output rising recently. His most consistent threat is on the ground, where his submission attacks and finishing ability stand out, and he carries his pace well into the later stages.
Matchup Read
Aguilar's finishing threat on the mat meets Sumudaerji's ability to scramble up and reset standing, which is the central fault line here. If Aguilar closes distance and gets him down, his submission game becomes the deciding factor; if Sumudaerji keeps it at range behind his length and gets back to his feet when grounded, he dictates terms. Aguilar's edge in holding pace matters more the longer this stays competitive.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Sumudaerji's reach keeps Aguilar at the end of punches or Aguilar closes behind rising volume.
- Grappling: once it hits the mat, whether Aguilar can hold position for submissions or Sumudaerji scrambles back up.
- Late rounds: whether Aguilar's pace starts to tell as the fight wears on.