← UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
Gable Steveson vs Elisha Ellison
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07-11
Gable StevesonLow Data
58.1%
Model
93.3%
Market
1.03
Odds
-35.3
Edge (pp)
No UFC data yet
UFC debut · style profile after first fight
Style Matchup
provisional · 1 UFC fightsprovisional · 1 fights
STRIKING
Striking Initiative
P0
Volume
P1
Striking Efficiency
P2
Range Sniper
P6
Kickboxing
P10
Clinch Striking
P65
Defensive Striking
P32
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
Wrestling
P34
Pressure Wrestling
P99
Top Control
P18
Submission
P12
Anti-Wrestling
P13
Grappling Defense
P23
Scrambler
P34
DAMAGE / FINISHING
Power
P29
Finisher
P61
Damage Resistance
P38
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
Fast Starter
—
Pace
P12
Late Fighter
—
GLOBAL
Versatility
P8
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
StevesonEllison
—Landed / min1.57
—Absorbed / min15.13
—Accuracy33%
—Defense41%
—KD / 150.00
—KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
StevesonEllison
—TD / 150.00
—TD att / 1515.65
—TD accuracy0%
—TD defense—
—Control / 151:42
—Sub att / 150.00
Targets
StevesonEllison
Head—|67%
Body—|33%
Leg—|0%
Position
StevesonEllison
Distance—|67%
Clinch—|33%
Ground—|0%
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Gable Steveson
Gable Steveson arrives undefeated at 3-0 across all organizations, riding a three-win streak, with his most reliable trait being the ability to close a fight before the scorecards. His recent run has stayed clean of any stoppage loss, so he hasn't been tested through adversity on film.
Elisha Ellison
Elisha Ellison carries a 5-2 overall record and a 10 cm reach advantage that gives him room to work from the outside. His most meaningful threat comes on the ground, where he brings a modest finishing danger. He dropped his UFC debut and has been out for just over 9 months.
Matchup Read
Steveson's finishing ability makes the opening stretch dangerous, while Ellison's longer frame and ground threat grow in value if the fight settles. The reach gap gives Ellison space to fight at range early, but if Steveson closes distance and imposes his pace, the early finishing danger is real. Should the fight hit the mat, Ellison's submission threat becomes the live concern rather than a one-way grappling exchange for Steveson.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Ellison can use his 10 cm reach to keep Steveson at the end of his punches and deny clean entries.
- Grappling: if the fight goes to the mat, watch who ends up on top and whether Ellison can hunt submissions off his back.
- Late rounds: whether Steveson's pressure forces a finish or Ellison drags it into the third at range.
Key Uncertainty
Both men are near-unknowns at this level, Steveson making his UFC debut with no promotional history and Ellison carrying just a single UFC fight, which limits how reliably their tools translate here.