← UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry
Kaue Fernandes vs Jalin Turner
UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry · 2026-08-15
55.4%
Model
46.3%
Market
2.08
Odds
+9.1
Edge (pp)
provisional · 4 UFC fightsprovisional · 4 fights
Style Matchup
STRIKING
P96
Striking Initiative
P88
P88
Volume
P88
P96
Striking Efficiency
P75
P92
Range Sniper
P92
P97
Kickboxing
P47
P25
Clinch Striking
P50
P82
Defensive Striking
P1
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P53
Wrestling
P32
P28
Pressure Wrestling
P24
P17
Top Control
P26
P14
Submission
P65
P11
Anti-Wrestling
P31
P58
Grappling Defense
P57
P28
Scrambler
P52
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P97
Power
P96
P59
Finisher
P100
P55
Damage Resistance
P49
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P89
Fast Starter
P87
P39
Pace
P59
P19
Late Fighter
P36
GLOBAL
P69
Versatility
P37
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
FernandesTurner
4.28Landed / min5.41
1.42Absorbed / min4.35
55%Accuracy48%
63%Defense41%
1.57KD / 151.43
0.00KD abs / 150.32
Grappling / Wrestling
FernandesTurner
1.18TD / 150.63
1.18TD att / 151.27
100%TD accuracy50%
77%TD defense75%
1:23Control / 152:09
0.00Sub att / 151.11
Targets
FernandesTurner
Head48%|67%
Body20%|26%
Leg32%|6%
Position
FernandesTurner
Distance83%|73%
Clinch4%|10%
Ground12%|17%
Ranking evolution Fernandes Turner
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Kaue Fernandes
Kaue Fernandes rides a three-fight win streak and sits 3-1 in the UFC, 11-2 overall. His sharpest tools are distance management and a solid stand-up defense, backed by a durable chin that holds up under fire. His ground control has been trending upward lately, and he carries a modest edge in getting fights to the mat.
Jalin Turner
Jalin Turner brings the longer, rangier frame, with 10 cm of reach on Fernandes, and a bigger body of UFC experience at 8-6, 15-9 overall. He owns a slight advantage in striking volume and forward pressure, working behind a southpaw stance that reshapes the usual angles.
Matchup Read
Turner carries the longer résumé and the physical tools, but Fernandes owns the sharper matchup-specific defense. The stand-up is the crux: Turner's reach and pressure want to keep this at range, while Fernandes's distance control and durability are built to weather that volume and close the gap. If Fernandes can't neutralize the length standing, his rising top game and takedown threat become the alternate route to take Turner off his rhythm.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Fernandes can close the 10 cm reach gap or gets kept at the end of Turner's punches.
- Grappling: how often Fernandes changes levels and whether his improving top control holds Turner down.
- Stance dynamic: how the orthodox-southpaw angles affect lead-hand exchanges and who lands first stepping in.