← UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer
Marcin Tybura vs Tyrell Fortune
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03-28
Marcin TyburaLow Data
53.8%
Model
46.5%
Market
2.07
Odds
+7.3
Edge (pp)
established · 23 UFC fightsestablished · 23 fights
Style Matchup
No UFC data yet
UFC debut · style profile after first fight
STRIKING
P57
Striking Initiative
P34
Volume
P52
Striking Efficiency
P22
Range Sniper
P42
Kickboxing
P24
Clinch Striking
P45
Defensive Striking
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P52
Wrestling
P74
Pressure Wrestling
P78
Top Control
P56
Submission
P87
Anti-Wrestling
P91
Grappling Defense
P86
Scrambler
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P20
Power
P30
Finisher
P25
Damage Resistance
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P41
Fast Starter
P72
Pace
P87
Late Fighter
GLOBAL
P81
Versatility
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
TyburaFortune
3.59Landed / min—
3.33Absorbed / min—
49%Accuracy—
55%Defense—
0.06KD / 15—
0.36KD abs / 15—
Grappling / Wrestling
TyburaFortune
1.38TD / 15—
4.09TD att / 15—
34%TD accuracy—
75%TD defense—
4:30Control / 15—
0.12Sub att / 15—
Targets
TyburaFortune
Head66%|—
Body21%|—
Leg13%|—
Position
TyburaFortune
Distance68%|—
Clinch9%|—
Ground23%|—
Ranking evolution Tybura Fortune
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Marcin Tybura
Marcin Tybura brings a deep 27-10 all-organizations record and 14-9 in the UFC, with experience against ranked heavyweights. He owns the length in this one, roughly 8 cm of reach, and his most meaningful tool is a submission threat once the fight hits the mat.
Tyrell Fortune
Tyrell Fortune rides a three-fight win streak into his UFC debut, sitting at 17-3 across all organizations. His main asset is the ability to close the show before the judges, carrying finishing power that makes him a threat to end exchanges early.
Matchup Read
The ground tilts toward Tybura, whose submission threat becomes relevant any time the fight goes to the mat, while Fortune's path runs through his power and ability to finish before the scorecards. Tybura's 8 cm reach gives him room to work at distance, but Fortune hasn't been stopped recently, so Tybura's finishing threat meets a durable target. Whoever dictates whether this stays standing or hits the canvas shapes the outcome.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Tybura uses his length to keep Fortune at range or Fortune closes distance to land power.
- Grappling: if the fight hits the mat, watch whether Tybura can threaten submissions or Fortune stays composed.
- Late rounds: whether Fortune's finishing pressure holds up or Tybura's experience steadies the pace.
Key Uncertainty
Fortune arrives on a UFC debut with no Octagon history to read, so how his power and durability translate against this level of opposition remains the main limit on this matchup.