← UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown
Gabriel Bonfim vs Randy Brown
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · 2025-11-08
68.4%
Model
61.3%
Market
1.57
Odds
+7.1
Edge (pp)
limited sample · 6 UFC fightslimited · 6 fights
Style Matchup
established · 20 UFC fightsestablished · 20 fights
STRIKING
P55
Striking Initiative
P70
P68
Volume
P75
P69
Striking Efficiency
P74
P40
Range Sniper
P78
P86
Kickboxing
P75
P55
Clinch Striking
P79
P85
Defensive Striking
P57
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P94
Wrestling
P28
P90
Pressure Wrestling
P23
P73
Top Control
P29
P99
Submission
P59
P36
Anti-Wrestling
P38
P75
Grappling Defense
P57
P28
Scrambler
P70
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P4
Power
P58
P92
Finisher
P42
P40
Damage Resistance
P38
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P97
Fast Starter
P58
P86
Pace
P55
P70
Late Fighter
P20
GLOBAL
P97
Versatility
P70
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
BonfimBrown
4.40Landed / min4.47
3.43Absorbed / min3.26
46%Accuracy47%
62%Defense55%
0.00KD / 150.43
0.29KD abs / 150.36
Grappling / Wrestling
BonfimBrown
4.07TD / 150.79
7.57TD att / 152.00
54%TD accuracy39%
76%TD defense73%
3:32Control / 152:26
1.45Sub att / 150.57
Targets
BonfimBrown
Head58%|64%
Body19%|20%
Leg23%|17%
Position
BonfimBrown
Distance87%|77%
Clinch11%|15%
Ground2%|8%
Ranking evolution Bonfim Brown
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Gabriel Bonfim
Gabriel Bonfim arrives on a 3-fight win streak with an 18-1 overall mark, and 4 of his last 5 UFC outings in the win column. His most dangerous work comes on the mat, where his submission threat is real and his top control has been building. He also carries a slight edge managing range and defending on the feet.
Randy Brown
Randy Brown brings a deep 14-6 UFC tenure and a 20-6 overall record, having taken 4 of his last 5. He owns a substantial physical advantage in this pairing, roughly 15 cm of reach, and his striking output has been climbing. His recent form has held steady without a dip in level.
Matchup Read
Bonfim carries the early finishing danger, particularly once the fight hits the canvas, where his submission threat and improving top control give him a clear route to end things. Brown's value grows the longer it stays standing: his 15 cm reach and rising volume let him fight behind the jab and keep distance. The fight likely turns on whether Brown can use his frame to stay long, or whether Bonfim closes and drags it down.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Brown keeps Bonfim at the end of his jab or gets crowded against the fence.
- Grappling: how quickly Bonfim can change levels and, once on top, whether he transitions toward the submission.
- Late rounds: whether Brown's climbing output keeps stacking as the fight stretches on the feet.