← UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown
Jackson McVey vs Zach Reese
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · 2025-11-08
Jackson McVeyLow Data
vs Zach Reese
56.1%
Model
27.6%
Market
3.51
Odds
+28.5
Edge (pp)
provisional · 1 UFC fightsprovisional · 1 fights
Style Matchup
limited sample · 5 UFC fightslimited · 5 fights
STRIKING
P1
Striking Initiative
P74
P26
Volume
P63
P0
Striking Efficiency
P84
P7
Range Sniper
P74
P2
Kickboxing
P70
P52
Clinch Striking
P40
P44
Defensive Striking
P21
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P30
Wrestling
P83
P27
Pressure Wrestling
P60
P1
Top Control
P44
P37
Submission
P36
P6
Anti-Wrestling
P29
P4
Grappling Defense
P33
P35
Scrambler
P83
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P22
Power
P77
P60
Finisher
P66
P40
Damage Resistance
P43
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P6
Fast Starter
P66
P8
Pace
P77
—
Late Fighter
P35
GLOBAL
P5
Versatility
P61
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
McVeyReese
1.12Landed / min4.20
1.95Absorbed / min2.78
27%Accuracy54%
22%Defense45%
0.00KD / 150.43
0.00KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
McVeyReese
0.00TD / 152.98
4.19TD att / 155.11
0%TD accuracy58%
0%TD defense61%
0:33Control / 153:07
0.00Sub att / 150.85
Targets
McVeyReese
Head75%|57%
Body25%|28%
Leg0%|16%
Position
McVeyReese
Distance100%|70%
Clinch0%|7%
Ground0%|22%
Ranking evolution McVey Reese
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Jackson McVey
Jackson McVey works behind sharp distance management and stand-up defense, controlling the space at range and making himself hard to hit. His recent durability has held up well, and he carries enough pop to threaten a finish. He's 6-1 across all organizations, though he dropped his UFC debut.
Zach Reese
Zach Reese brings volume and forward pressure on the feet, and his grappling shapes exchanges on both ends: he can drag the fight to the mat and stuff attempts to keep it there. At 9-2 overall and 3-2 in the UFC, he's the more experienced hand in this cage.
Matchup Read
Early, McVey's distance control and defensive stand-up meet Reese's pressure and output, a fight over who dictates range in the opening exchanges. As it wears on, Reese's ability to change levels becomes central: if he closes distance and gets it down, McVey's range game is neutralized. McVey needs to keep it standing and use his defense to make Reese pay for pressing in. His finishing threat rewards clean counters.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether McVey can hold Reese at the end of his shots or gets walked into the pocket by the pressure.
- Grappling: how often Reese changes levels, and whether McVey can stay upright and keep the fight at range.
- Durability: whether McVey's recent chin holds up against Reese's volume in extended exchanges.
Key Uncertainty
With only a single UFC appearance on McVey's record, there's limited high-level tape to gauge how his range game and durability hold up against a fighter with Reese's pressure and experience.