← UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott
Gauge Young vs Thiago Moises
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · 2026-04-18
52.5%
Model
54.2%
Market
1.78
Odds
-1.7
Edge (pp)
provisional · 2 UFC fightsprovisional · 2 fights
Style Matchup
established · 15 UFC fightsestablished · 15 fights
STRIKING
P87
Striking Initiative
P1
P88
Volume
P4
P87
Striking Efficiency
P10
P72
Range Sniper
P20
P94
Kickboxing
P19
P22
Clinch Striking
P17
P25
Defensive Striking
P34
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P52
Wrestling
P50
P44
Pressure Wrestling
P57
P69
Top Control
P53
P10
Submission
P82
P57
Anti-Wrestling
P25
P75
Grappling Defense
P19
P31
Scrambler
P69
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P29
Power
P14
P41
Finisher
P39
P62
Damage Resistance
P37
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P52
Fast Starter
P2
P65
Pace
P13
P71
Late Fighter
P73
GLOBAL
P63
Versatility
P10
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
YoungMoises
6.43Landed / min2.33
6.03Absorbed / min4.11
50%Accuracy42%
50%Defense54%
0.00KD / 150.09
0.00KD abs / 150.36
Grappling / Wrestling
YoungMoises
1.50TD / 151.35
3.50TD att / 153.78
43%TD accuracy36%
100%TD defense53%
1:57Control / 153:20
0.00Sub att / 151.17
Targets
YoungMoises
Head50%|62%
Body29%|14%
Leg21%|24%
Position
YoungMoises
Distance95%|73%
Clinch4%|6%
Ground1%|21%
Ranking evolution Young Moises
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Gauge Young
Gauge Young brings high output and forward pressure on the feet, backed by takedown defense that lets him keep exchanges standing. He's shown recent durability without being stopped, and he carries a bit of finishing ability over 10-3 across all organizations, with a 1-1 UFC mark.
Thiago Moises
Thiago Moises has faced a much higher grade of competition over a long career, going 19-9 overall and 8-7 in the UFC. On the mat he owns a slight edge in top control once he lands the fight there. He's been out for 11 months since his last appearance.
Matchup Read
Standing favors Young's volume and pressure, and his takedown defense complicates Moises' route to the mat, where Moises holds his best advantage in top control. If Moises can't change levels and plant him, he's stuck trading with the busier, more durable striker. Young has not been stopped recently, which blunts Moises' path to a decisive finish. The deeper question is whether Moises' tougher résumé translates when the exchanges stay upright.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Moises can close distance and complete takedowns, or gets stuffed and kept on the feet.
- Early striking: whether Young's pressure and volume force Moises to shoot rather than trade.
- Late rounds: whether Moises' experience against stronger competition shows up if this reaches the scorecards.
Key Uncertainty
With only two UFC fights on Young's record, there's limited high-level tape to confirm how his pressure and takedown defense hold up against a more seasoned opponent like Moises.