← UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman
Dricus Du Plessis vs Kamaru Usman
UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman · 2026-07-18
63.4%
Model
71.9%
Market
1.34
Odds
-8.5
Edge (pp)
Style Matchup
established · 19 UFC fightsestablished · 19 fights
STRIKING
P74
Striking Initiative
P64
P80
Volume
P30
P84
Striking Efficiency
P43
P92
Range Sniper
P18
P85
Kickboxing
P22
P31
Clinch Striking
P87
P41
Defensive Striking
P35
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P81
Wrestling
P87
P26
Pressure Wrestling
P74
P24
Top Control
P96
P77
Submission
P28
P50
Anti-Wrestling
P58
P20
Grappling Defense
P91
P49
Scrambler
P25
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P58
Power
P61
P90
Finisher
P10
P96
Damage Resistance
P94
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P58
Fast Starter
P79
P58
Pace
P95
P79
Late Fighter
P62
GLOBAL
P83
Versatility
P93
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
PlessisUsman
5.18Landed / min4.16
4.33Absorbed / min2.67
49%Accuracy52%
53%Defense55%
0.40KD / 150.44
0.00KD abs / 150.04
Grappling / Wrestling
PlessisUsman
2.22TD / 152.79
4.34TD att / 156.33
51%TD accuracy44%
35%TD defense90%
1:46Control / 156:30
0.71Sub att / 150.09
Targets
PlessisUsman
Head59%|64%
Body18%|29%
Leg23%|8%
Position
PlessisUsman
Distance82%|57%
Clinch8%|17%
Ground10%|26%
Ranking evolution Plessis Usman
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Dricus Du Plessis
Du Plessis carries real finishing power, with the ability to close out fights before the judges rather than leaning on the scorecards. His striking output has been trending upward lately. The résumé backs it: a 9-1 UFC mark, 4 wins in his last 5, and a recent victory over the No. 2-ranked opponent.
Kamaru Usman
Usman manages range and defends well on the feet, with sharp takedown defense to keep things standing when he wants and heavy top control when he puts the fight on the mat, where his work has been improving. A durable chin rounds out the package. His UFC record sits at 16-3.
Matchup Read
Standing favors Usman's range control and defensive polish, but Du Plessis brings the clearer path to a finish whenever exchanges open up. Usman's takedown defense limits Du Plessis's grappling entries, and if the fight does hit the mat, Usman's top control and durability work against an early stoppage. Across five rounds, Du Plessis needs to force damaging moments before Usman's distance management and control grind out the scorecards.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Du Plessis can close distance and land clean through Usman's range management and guard.
- Grappling: how Usman's takedown defense holds up, and whether any trip to the mat turns into sustained top control.
- Late rounds: with championship rounds scheduled, watch whether Du Plessis's finishing threat stays live or Usman's control dictates the pace.
Key Uncertainty
Usman returns from 13.1 months out, a layoff worth noting since it's unclear how his timing and rhythm hold up early against a live finishing threat, though the effect isn't predictable.