← UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan
Lando Vannata vs Darrius Flowers
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · 2026-04-04
50.5%
Model
67.0%
Market
1.44
Odds
-16.5
Edge (pp)
established · 11 UFC fightsestablished · 11 fights
Style Matchup
provisional · 3 UFC fightsprovisional · 3 fights
STRIKING
P52
Striking Initiative
P11
P72
Volume
P24
P64
Striking Efficiency
P73
P76
Range Sniper
P70
P83
Kickboxing
P87
P35
Clinch Striking
P55
P44
Defensive Striking
P12
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P22
Wrestling
P37
P14
Pressure Wrestling
P27
P10
Top Control
P8
P59
Submission
P6
P71
Anti-Wrestling
P39
P61
Grappling Defense
P27
P39
Scrambler
P57
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P30
Power
P22
P60
Finisher
P49
P80
Damage Resistance
P66
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P42
Fast Starter
P15
P22
Pace
P3
P11
Late Fighter
P11
GLOBAL
P48
Versatility
P14
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
VannataFlowers
4.22Landed / min3.17
4.63Absorbed / min5.65
46%Accuracy49%
53%Defense44%
0.25KD / 150.00
0.25KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
VannataFlowers
0.74TD / 151.02
2.35TD att / 153.57
32%TD accuracy29%
70%TD defense60%
0:59Control / 151:08
0.12Sub att / 150.00
Targets
VannataFlowers
Head46%|46%
Body27%|22%
Leg27%|32%
Position
VannataFlowers
Distance87%|87%
Clinch9%|10%
Ground4%|3%
Ranking evolution Vannata Flowers
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Lando Vannata
Lando Vannata brings the more tested résumé, having shared the cage with better competition, and his cardio holds up deep into fights. He carries slightly higher output and pressure on the feet, cleaner distance work, a submission threat off his back, and durability in exchanges.
Darrius Flowers
Darrius Flowers owns a slight advantage in getting the fight to the mat, giving him a route to change the terrain when the striking isn't going his way. He's 0-3 in the UFC across his last three appearances, with a 12-8 mark overall.
Matchup Read
Flowers' push to get it down meets Vannata's edge in the striking exchanges, so the fight hinges on whether Flowers can consistently change levels. If it stays standing, Vannata's volume, distance work and deeper gas tank favor a longer fight for him. If Flowers scores takedowns, he still has to navigate Vannata's guard, where the finishing threat off his back becomes the central danger in ground exchanges.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Flowers can land takedowns and, if he does, whether he can pass or gets caught in Vannata's guard.
- Early striking: does Vannata establish his output and range, or does Flowers close the gap to force level changes.
- Late rounds: whether the pace tells as the fight wears on, given Vannata's edge holding tempo deep.
Key Uncertainty
Both men enter off long layoffs, Vannata after 35.6 months out and Flowers after 20.7, which clouds how sharp either will look and makes their recent form harder to read.