← UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot
Clayton Carpenter vs Jafel Filho
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10-11
52.0%
Model
50.1%
Market
1.92
Odds
+1.9
Edge (pp)
provisional · 3 UFC fightsprovisional · 3 fights
Style Matchup
provisional · 4 UFC fightsprovisional · 4 fights
STRIKING
P20
Striking Initiative
P19
P12
Volume
P16
P67
Striking Efficiency
P5
P32
Range Sniper
P1
P47
Kickboxing
P7
P52
Clinch Striking
P60
P35
Defensive Striking
P37
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P58
Wrestling
P73
P73
Pressure Wrestling
P45
P64
Top Control
P50
P86
Submission
P96
P29
Anti-Wrestling
P14
P4
Grappling Defense
P22
P93
Scrambler
P91
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P8
Power
P9
P60
Finisher
P91
P53
Damage Resistance
P37
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P11
Fast Starter
P97
P51
Pace
P63
P24
Late Fighter
P4
GLOBAL
P37
Versatility
P17
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
CarpenterFilho
3.11Landed / min1.74
2.36Absorbed / min1.23
59%Accuracy42%
51%Defense48%
0.00KD / 150.00
0.00KD abs / 150.40
Grappling / Wrestling
CarpenterFilho
1.77TD / 152.41
4.13TD att / 154.81
43%TD accuracy50%
43%TD defense64%
5:18Control / 154:35
2.36Sub att / 152.41
Targets
CarpenterFilho
Head56%|57%
Body22%|29%
Leg23%|14%
Position
CarpenterFilho
Distance61%|60%
Clinch8%|9%
Ground32%|31%
Ranking evolution Carpenter Filho
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Clayton Carpenter
Clayton Carpenter comes in at 8-1 overall and 2-1 in the UFC, taking 2 of his last 3. His pressure and output are what he leans on standing, pushing forward to keep exchanges busy. His lone loss came against the No. 13-ranked opponent, so his exposure has been at a real level.
Jafel Filho
Jafel Filho carries a deep 16-4 record across all organizations, sitting 2-2 in the UFC. He manages range well and shows solid stand-up defense, backed by a durable chin. He owns a 5 cm reach edge, some ability to change levels and defend the takedown, plus a threat to finish inside the distance.
Matchup Read
Carpenter brings the busier recent UFC form and a win over the sharper opposition, but Filho holds the more matchup-relevant tools. Carpenter's forward volume runs into Filho's range control, longer frame and stand-up defense, meaning entries could be costly. If Carpenter's pressure crowds him, Filho can look to change levels or hurt him, since his chin and finishing threat let him stay in exchanges longer.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Carpenter's forward pressure closes the 5 cm reach gap or eats counters coming in.
- Grappling: who dictates when it hits the mat, given Filho's level-change threat and takedown defense.
- Durability: how Carpenter's volume affects a chin that has held up under fire.