← UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot
Luan Lacerda vs Saimon Oliveira
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10-11
68.1%
Model
68.8%
Market
1.40
Odds
-0.7
Edge (pp)
provisional · 2 UFC fightsprovisional · 2 fights
Style Matchup
provisional · 3 UFC fightsprovisional · 3 fights
STRIKING
P34
Striking Initiative
P2
P69
Volume
P19
P60
Striking Efficiency
P12
P71
Range Sniper
P20
P84
Kickboxing
P49
P22
Clinch Striking
P61
P24
Defensive Striking
P8
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P44
Wrestling
P10
P50
Pressure Wrestling
P10
P31
Top Control
P5
P78
Submission
P86
P79
Anti-Wrestling
P0
P58
Grappling Defense
P1
P49
Scrambler
P32
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P0
Power
P7
P62
Finisher
P72
P49
Damage Resistance
P16
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P15
Fast Starter
P32
P31
Pace
P3
P26
Late Fighter
P47
GLOBAL
P42
Versatility
P3
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
LacerdaOliveira
4.52Landed / min2.41
7.07Absorbed / min4.68
44%Accuracy39%
48%Defense42%
0.00KD / 150.00
0.00KD abs / 151.11
Grappling / Wrestling
LacerdaOliveira
1.26TD / 150.00
5.02TD att / 152.78
25%TD accuracy0%
75%TD defense35%
1:15Control / 151:24
0.63Sub att / 152.23
Targets
LacerdaOliveira
Head44%|48%
Body49%|23%
Leg7%|29%
Position
LacerdaOliveira
Distance97%|83%
Clinch3%|17%
Ground0%|0%
Ranking evolution Lacerda Oliveira
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Luan Lacerda
Luan Lacerda's strengths cluster in the wrestling and grappling exchanges, where he can dictate whether the fight hits the mat and can defend attempts to be taken down himself. He's held up well against recent damage, carries a slight edge in output and forward pressure, and stands 8 cm taller.
Saimon Oliveira
Saimon Oliveira's main asset is his gas tank, holding pace as the fight wears on. He owns slight advantages in managing range and stand-up defense, along with some durability of his own. He brings an 18-6 record across all organizations.
Matchup Read
Early rounds favor Lacerda's ability to steer the fight, either dragging it to the mat or stuffing Oliveira's entries to keep it where his pressure and height apply. His durability helps him weather exchanges. Later, Oliveira's cardio grows in value: if he survives the grappling and pushes the pace into the deeper water, his range work and conditioning become the deciding factors over the distance.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Lacerda gets Oliveira down or forces the fight to stay standing on his terms.
- Late rounds: whether Oliveira's pace climbs as Lacerda's forward pressure holds or dips.
- Distance: how well Oliveira uses range and stand-up defense to blunt Lacerda's volume.
Key Uncertainty
Reading Lacerda is complicated by only two UFC fights on record and a layoff of over two years since his last outing, which leaves limited recent form to lean on.