← UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot
Lucas Rocha vs Stewart Nicoll
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10-11
Lucas RochaLow Data
69.0%
Model
47.9%
Market
2.01
Odds
+21.0
Edge (pp)
provisional · 1 UFC fightsprovisional · 1 fights
Style Matchup
provisional · 1 UFC fightsprovisional · 1 fights
STRIKING
P2
Striking Initiative
P21
P21
Volume
P4
P55
Striking Efficiency
P6
P40
Range Sniper
P1
P93
Kickboxing
P5
P48
Clinch Striking
P51
P28
Defensive Striking
P45
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P29
Wrestling
P61
P0
Pressure Wrestling
P100
P0
Top Control
P100
P27
Submission
P33
P0
Anti-Wrestling
P41
P2
Grappling Defense
P34
P35
Scrambler
P38
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P34
Power
P29
P53
Finisher
P54
P42
Damage Resistance
P39
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P1
Fast Starter
P53
P0
Pace
P95
—
Late Fighter
—
GLOBAL
P13
Versatility
P26
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
RochaNicoll
2.36Landed / min3.02
4.72Absorbed / min1.13
41%Accuracy47%
43%Defense40%
0.00KD / 150.00
0.00KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
RochaNicoll
0.00TD / 155.66
0.00TD att / 155.66
—TD accuracy100%
33%TD defense—
0:00Control / 1511:42
0.00Sub att / 150.00
Targets
RochaNicoll
Head59%|50%
Body35%|25%
Leg6%|25%
Position
RochaNicoll
Distance94%|25%
Clinch6%|0%
Ground0%|75%
Ranking evolution Rocha Nicoll
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Lucas Rocha
Lucas Rocha arrives with a strong 17-2 mark across all organizations and has faced the tougher slate of competition, though he dropped his UFC debut to sit 0-1 in the promotion. His deepest record and quality of opposition are his most meaningful credentials here.
Stewart Nicoll
Stewart Nicoll's best assets are on the feet: sharper distance control and stand-up defense, plus a proven ability to absorb damage. He also carries a modest finishing threat once exchanges hit the mat, and stands 5 cm taller. His all-organizations record is 8-1 with a UFC debut loss.
Matchup Read
Standing, Nicoll's range management, height and durability make him the harder man to hit clean and the harder man to hurt, so Rocha's route likely runs through changing levels rather than trading at distance. But grounding the fight brings its own risk, since Nicoll carries a finishing threat off the mat. Rocha's edge is his broader résumé against better opposition, which matters more the longer this stays competitive.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Nicoll uses his height and range to keep Rocha at the end of his punches, or Rocha closes the gap.
- Grappling: if Rocha gets the fight down, whether he stays clear of Nicoll's submission attempts from the bottom.
- Late rounds: whether Rocha's experience against stiffer competition shows as the fight wears on.
Key Uncertainty
Both men have just a single UFC fight to judge, and Nicoll adds a layoff of nearly 14 months, so there is limited recent evidence to read how either performs at this level.