AIOliveira carries the tested résumé and finishing pedigree, but Gamrot owns the sharper matchup-specific tool…

51.6%

Model

53.2%

Market

1.81

Odds

-1.6

Edge (pp)

51.6%48.4%

SUB

Wrestling Pressure · Wrestling

established · 11 UFC fightsestablished · 11 fights

Style Matchup

SUBMISSION HUNTER

CLINCH STRIKER

Submission

established · 34 UFC fightsestablished · 34 fights

STRIKING

P35

Striking Initiative

P29

P20

Volume

P18

P69

Striking Efficiency

P67

P31

Range Sniper

P53

P52

Kickboxing

P43

P37

Clinch Striking

P85

P68

Defensive Striking

P10

GRAPPLING / WRESTLING

P96

Wrestling

P77

P98

Pressure Wrestling

P68

P92

Top Control

P60

P52

Submission

P99

P55

Anti-Wrestling

P26

P98

Grappling Defense

P15

P30

Scrambler

P96

DAMAGE / FINISHING

P35

Power

P47

P10

Finisher

P95

P35

Damage Resistance

P31

FIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill

P90

Fast Starter

P77

P80

Pace

P57

P90

Late Fighter

P28

GLOBAL

P99

Versatility

P66

Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.

Striking

GamrotOliveira

3.35Landed / min3.37

3.04Absorbed / min3.30

52%Accuracy55%

59%Defense49%

0.11KD / 150.41

0.54KD abs / 150.35

Grappling / Wrestling

GamrotOliveira

5.33TD / 152.23

14.46TD att / 155.70

37%TD accuracy39%

91%TD defense53%

4:36Control / 154:26

0.11Sub att / 152.53

Targets

Position

Ranking evolution Gamrot Oliveira

AI Matchup Analysis

Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.

Mateusz Gamrot

Gamrot's calling card here is his ability to stuff takedowns and dictate whether the fight stays standing, backed by a granite recent chin. He's held up well against elite competition, hasn't been stopped in his recent outings, and comes in on a win over the No. 29-ranked opponent, 4/5 in his last five UFC fights.

Charles Oliveira

Oliveira brings the more dangerous ground game, a real submission and finishing threat once the fight hits the mat, plus his slight edge in ending fights before the judges. He also owns a 10 cm reach advantage and a long frame. His only recent loss came against the No. 1-ranked opponent.

Matchup Read

Oliveira carries the tested résumé and finishing pedigree, but Gamrot owns the sharper matchup-specific tool: takedown defense that speaks directly to where Oliveira is most lethal. The central question is whether Oliveira can drag this to the mat, where his submission threat becomes the fight-ender, or whether Gamrot keeps it standing and negates that danger. On the feet, Oliveira's reach and the crossed stances shape the angles; Gamrot's durability lets him absorb exchanges getting inside.

What to Watch

Grappling: whether Oliveira can complete entries or Gamrot stuffs them and forces the standup back to the feet.
Ground danger: if it hits the mat, how quickly Oliveira threatens submissions before Gamrot can scramble or stand.
Distance: whether Oliveira uses the 10 cm reach to work behind his jab or Gamrot closes it and stays in the pocket.

Mateusz Gamrot vs Charles Oliveira