← UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos
Rinya Nakamura vs Brady Hiestand
UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos · 2026-09-26
59.5%
Model
73.9%
Market
1.30
Odds
-14.4
Edge (pp)
Style Matchup
STRIKING
P18
Striking Initiative
P10
P6
Volume
P6
P25
Striking Efficiency
P53
P18
Range Sniper
P31
P18
Kickboxing
P45
P25
Clinch Striking
P55
P56
Defensive Striking
P23
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P70
Wrestling
P95
P70
Pressure Wrestling
P86
P99
Top Control
P91
P36
Submission
P57
P63
Anti-Wrestling
P68
P75
Grappling Defense
P28
P33
Scrambler
P84
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P98
Power
P8
P56
Finisher
P57
P40
Damage Resistance
P31
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P95
Fast Starter
P72
P63
Pace
P59
P27
Late Fighter
P27
GLOBAL
P66
Versatility
P62
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
NakamuraHiestand
2.75Landed / min2.70
1.52Absorbed / min3.75
52%Accuracy51%
64%Defense51%
0.97KD / 150.00
0.32KD abs / 150.80
Grappling / Wrestling
NakamuraHiestand
2.25TD / 154.80
2.58TD att / 1510.41
88%TD accuracy46%
100%TD defense43%
7:49Control / 157:07
1.29Sub att / 151.07
Targets
NakamuraHiestand
Head57%|74%
Body22%|18%
Leg21%|8%
Position
NakamuraHiestand
Distance61%|84%
Clinch3%|9%
Ground36%|7%
Ranking evolution Nakamura Hiestand
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Rinya Nakamura
Rinya Nakamura sits at 10-1 overall and 4-1 in the UFC, winning four of his last five. His stand-up carries the sharper distance control and defensive polish, and his southpaw striking output has been climbing. He defends takedowns well to keep exchanges upright, absorbs shots without much trouble, and brings a bit more finishing threat.
Brady Hiestand
Brady Hiestand rides a three-fight win streak and sits 3-1 in the UFC, most recently beating the No. 40-ranked opponent. His main route in this matchup is his ability to change levels and drag the fight to the mat. He also owns an 8 cm reach advantage and the longer frame.
Matchup Read
Early, the striking favors Nakamura's cleaner distance work and defensive stand-up, and his takedown defense directly meets Hiestand's push to get the fight down, so the central question is whether Hiestand can convert level changes against a fighter built to keep it standing. If those entries stall, exchanges stay in Nakamura's range, where his chin and rising volume matter. Hiestand's 8 cm of reach gives him length to contest that distance from orthodox.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Hiestand's level changes actually get Nakamura down or get stuffed at the entry.
- Early striking: whether Hiestand uses his reach to hold Nakamura at range or gets outworked inside it.
- Late rounds: which man's pace holds up over three rounds after long layoffs on both sides.
Key Uncertainty
Both men return from extended time off, Nakamura after 13.8 months and Hiestand after 27.4, which makes early sharpness and pace hard to read until the exchanges begin.