← UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape
Cezary Oleksiejczuk vs Cesar Almeida
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape · 2025-12-13
Cezary OleksiejczukLow Data
51.9%
Model
60.8%
Market
1.58
Odds
-8.9
Edge (pp)
No UFC data yet
UFC debut · style profile after first fight
Style Matchup
provisional · 4 UFC fightsprovisional · 4 fights
STRIKING
Striking Initiative
P96
Volume
P77
Striking Efficiency
P95
Range Sniper
P83
Kickboxing
P86
Clinch Striking
P87
Defensive Striking
P37
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
Wrestling
P8
Pressure Wrestling
P15
Top Control
P7
Submission
P8
Anti-Wrestling
P10
Grappling Defense
P4
Scrambler
P54
DAMAGE / FINISHING
Power
P83
Finisher
P60
Damage Resistance
P31
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
Fast Starter
P23
Pace
P19
Late Fighter
P42
GLOBAL
Versatility
P10
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
OleksiejczukAlmeida
—Landed / min3.95
—Absorbed / min2.48
—Accuracy58%
—Defense48%
—KD / 150.36
—KD abs / 150.72
Grappling / Wrestling
OleksiejczukAlmeida
—TD / 150.00
—TD att / 150.72
—TD accuracy0%
—TD defense56%
—Control / 150:54
—Sub att / 150.36
Targets
OleksiejczukAlmeida
Head—|45%
Body—|33%
Leg—|22%
Position
OleksiejczukAlmeida
Distance—|70%
Clinch—|18%
Ground—|12%
Ranking evolution Oleksiejczuk Almeida
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Cezary Oleksiejczuk
Oleksiejczuk enters on a four-fight winning streak with a 16-3 mark across all organizations, and his track record against tougher competition stands out. A southpaw making his UFC walk, he holds a 5 cm height edge in this pairing.
Cesar Almeida
Almeida arrives at 3-1 in the UFC, 7-1 overall, on a two-fight run built around real stopping power, with his recent knockout threat the most consistent part of his game. An orthodox fighter, he's the older man by 12 years and last competed 11 months ago.
Matchup Read
Almeida carries the early finishing danger; if his hands land clean, this can end fast, and the crossed stances shape the angles those exchanges open from. Oleksiejczuk's value grows the longer it lasts, since his experience against sharper opposition matters most once the pace settles and Almeida's early power becomes less decisive. Whether Oleksiejczuk can weather the opening exchanges and drag Almeida into deeper water is the pivot.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Almeida can time the southpaw and land his power hand clean in the opening minutes.
- Later rounds: whether Oleksiejczuk's pace and higher class of experience take over as the fight extends.
- Ring activity: how Almeida looks off 11 months out once the pace picks up.
Key Uncertainty
With Oleksiejczuk stepping into the UFC for the first time, there's no top-level UFC form to read him against, leaving how he handles this jump in competition the open question.