AIGreen owns the tested résumé, having shared the cage with a higher tier of competition, but Gibson carries t…

60.8%

Model

62.2%

Market

1.55

Odds

-1.4

Edge (pp)

King Green

DEC

60.8%39.2%

Lance Gibson Jr.

VOLUME PRESSURE STRIKER

DEFENSIVE STRIKER · DISTANCE KICKBOXER · PRECISION STRIKER

Volume · Initiative

established · 25 UFC fightsestablished · 25 fights

Style Matchup

No UFC data yet

UFC debut · style profile after first fight

STRIKING

P97

Striking Initiative

P91

Volume

P94

Striking Efficiency

P76

Range Sniper

P90

Kickboxing

P43

Clinch Striking

P93

Defensive Striking

GRAPPLING / WRESTLING

P49

Wrestling

P52

Pressure Wrestling

P57

Top Control

P65

Submission

P98

Anti-Wrestling

P94

Grappling Defense

P54

Scrambler

DAMAGE / FINISHING

P29

Power

P30

Finisher

P42

Damage Resistance

FIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill

P86

Fast Starter

P75

Pace

P98

Late Fighter

GLOBAL

P100

Versatility

Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.

Striking

GreenJr.

6.55Landed / min—

3.63Absorbed / min—

54%Accuracy—

62%Defense—

0.28KD / 15—

0.28KD abs / 15—

Grappling / Wrestling

GreenJr.

1.17TD / 15—

2.74TD att / 15—

43%TD accuracy—

75%TD defense—

2:13Control / 15—

0.28Sub att / 15—

Targets

Position

Ranking evolution Green Jr.

AI Matchup Analysis

Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.

King Green

King Green brings a deep 32-17 career ledger and a 13-12 UFC run, and he's been tested against far tougher competition than his opponent has faced. That experience against elite names is his most meaningful asset here, though his recent results have been mixed at 2 of his last 5 UFC bouts.

Lance Gibson Jr.

Lance Gibson Jr. arrives on a 2-fight win streak with a 9-1 overall mark and steps into his UFC debut. His stronger trait is finishing ability, carrying the threat to end fights before the scorecards, including some danger on the ground, and he hasn't been stopped in his recent fights.

Matchup Read

Green owns the tested résumé, having shared the cage with a higher tier of competition, but Gibson carries the sharper matchup-specific weapon in his finishing ability, standing and on the mat. If Gibson can force exchanges and press the ground threat, his path to a stoppage opens. Green's task is to survive those danger windows, use his experience against quality opposition, and drag this toward the later going where his seasoning matters.

What to Watch

Early striking: watch whether Gibson pressures for a finish or Green settles into a measured, veteran rhythm.
Grappling: track who dictates ground position and whether Gibson can turn top control into submission attempts.
Late rounds: see if Green's deeper experience against tough opposition starts to tell as the fight wears on.

Key Uncertainty

Gibson enters on his UFC debut with no prior Octagon record, so how his finishing threat translates against this level of competition remains the hardest part of the matchup to read.

King Green vs Lance Gibson Jr.