← UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez
Geoff Neal vs Uros Medic
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02-21
64.4%
Model
61.8%
Market
1.56
Odds
+2.6
Edge (pp)
Style Matchup
established · 9 UFC fightsestablished · 9 fights
STRIKING
P58
Striking Initiative
P94
P60
Volume
P78
P93
Striking Efficiency
P98
P95
Range Sniper
P98
P74
Kickboxing
P76
P48
Clinch Striking
P71
P56
Defensive Striking
P57
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P26
Wrestling
P26
P15
Pressure Wrestling
P1
P58
Top Control
P1
P39
Submission
P12
P49
Anti-Wrestling
P2
P83
Grappling Defense
P6
P6
Scrambler
P20
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P87
Power
P100
P65
Finisher
P98
P77
Damage Resistance
P16
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P76
Fast Starter
P81
P22
Pace
P17
P17
Late Fighter
P35
GLOBAL
P84
Versatility
P26
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
NealMedic
5.03Landed / min5.03
5.54Absorbed / min3.60
51%Accuracy58%
57%Defense55%
0.88KD / 152.60
0.22KD abs / 151.12
Grappling / Wrestling
NealMedic
0.55TD / 150.37
1.21TD att / 150.74
45%TD accuracy50%
90%TD defense56%
2:12Control / 150:34
0.11Sub att / 150.00
Targets
NealMedic
Head85%|69%
Body8%|20%
Leg6%|11%
Position
NealMedic
Distance82%|63%
Clinch11%|14%
Ground7%|23%
Ranking evolution Neal Medic
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Geoff Neal
Geoff Neal owns the frame in this one, with a 10 cm reach advantage to work behind. His most reliable asset is his takedown defense, keeping exchanges standing where he wants them. His recent UFC ledger is mixed at 2 of his last 5, though his last win came over the No. 14-ranked opponent.
Uros Medic
Uros Medic carries the finishing threat here, riding a two-fight win streak with the ability to end things before the judges. His cardio holds up better over the distance, and his stand-up defense grades slightly ahead. He also brings a modest edge in getting the fight to the mat, going 3 of his last 5 in the UFC.
Matchup Read
Standing, Neal's reach and takedown defense pull the fight into open exchanges, where Medic's finishing power becomes the central danger. Medic holds a slight edge in distance management and a look at level changes, but Neal's sprawl complicates any push to the mat. The longer this goes, Medic's gas tank grows in value, so Neal's incentive is to win rounds early behind the jab before the cardio gap tells.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Neal uses his reach to fight at range or Medic closes the gap to load up power.
- Grappling: whether Medic's level changes find the mat or Neal's takedown defense keeps it standing.
- Late rounds: whether the pace holds for Neal or Medic's cardio starts to separate them.