AISmith's finishing momentum makes the early rounds his window, while Harrell's submission danger grows every …

80.5%

Model

70.7%

Market

1.36

Odds

+9.8

Edge (pp)

Jacobe Smith

KO/TKO

80.5%19.5%

Josiah Harrell

POWER STRIKER

HIGH-PACE GRINDER

Power

provisional · 2 UFC fightsprovisional · 2 fights

Style Matchup

No UFC data yet

UFC debut · style profile after first fight

STRIKING

P55

Striking Initiative

P23

Volume

P51

Striking Efficiency

P32

Range Sniper

P11

Kickboxing

P38

Clinch Striking

P17

Defensive Striking

GRAPPLING / WRESTLING

P63

Wrestling

P82

Pressure Wrestling

P100

Top Control

P48

Submission

P48

Anti-Wrestling

P63

Grappling Defense

P35

Scrambler

DAMAGE / FINISHING

P99

Power

P72

Finisher

P46

Damage Resistance

FIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill

P66

Fast Starter

P94

Pace

—

Late Fighter

GLOBAL

P51

Versatility

Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.

Striking

SmithHarrell

5.65Landed / min—

3.99Absorbed / min—

60%Accuracy—

45%Defense—

1.46KD / 15—

0.00KD abs / 15—

Grappling / Wrestling

SmithHarrell

2.92TD / 15—

2.92TD att / 15—

100%TD accuracy—

100%TD defense—

8:37Control / 15—

1.46Sub att / 15—

Targets

Position

Ranking evolution Smith Harrell

AI Matchup Analysis

Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.

Jacobe Smith

Jacobe Smith arrives unbeaten at 11-0, 2-0 in the UFC, riding an 11-fight win streak with a habit of closing fights out. He carries a real physical package here, roughly 10cm of reach and 8cm of height on his opponent, and his recent run has come against tougher opposition.

Josiah Harrell

Josiah Harrell steps in for his UFC debut at 11-0 across all organizations, also on an 11-fight streak. His most notable weapon is his finishing threat once the fight hits the mat, where he becomes a live danger in ground exchanges.

Matchup Read

Smith's finishing momentum makes the early rounds his window, while Harrell's submission danger grows every time the fight goes to the floor. The length gives Smith room to work at range and keep exchanges standing, which is where he'd want them given Harrell's threat off the ground. If Harrell drags him into extended grappling, the math shifts toward his finishing ability. Cage position and who dictates where the fight happens will decide it.

What to Watch

Early striking: whether Smith uses his reach and height to keep exchanges at distance rather than getting drawn into grappling range.
Grappling: how quickly Harrell can close, tie up, and get the fight to the mat where his finishing threat lives.
Scrambles: whether Smith can escape and stand back up when Harrell does establish ground position.

Key Uncertainty

Both men are essentially unproven at this level, Smith with just two UFC fights and Harrell making his debut, so how either holds up against top-tier opposition remains largely untested.

Jacobe Smith vs Josiah Harrell