← UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez
Sean Strickland vs Anthony Hernandez
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02-21
62.6%
Model
30.6%
Market
3.15
Odds
+31.9
Edge (pp)
Style Matchup
established · 11 UFC fightsestablished · 11 fights
STRIKING
P94
Striking Initiative
P46
P96
Volume
P15
P64
Striking Efficiency
P49
P71
Range Sniper
P9
P59
Kickboxing
P5
P2
Clinch Striking
P68
P88
Defensive Striking
P9
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P42
Wrestling
P100
P13
Pressure Wrestling
P98
P42
Top Control
P98
P40
Submission
P92
P55
Anti-Wrestling
P90
P94
Grappling Defense
P69
P0
Scrambler
P97
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P38
Power
P5
P12
Finisher
P86
P84
Damage Resistance
P64
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P23
Fast Starter
P86
P49
Pace
P98
P46
Late Fighter
P12
GLOBAL
P84
Versatility
P81
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
StricklandHernandez
5.95Landed / min4.53
4.57Absorbed / min2.53
43%Accuracy63%
61%Defense50%
0.24KD / 150.00
0.12KD abs / 150.12
Grappling / Wrestling
StricklandHernandez
0.73TD / 156.50
1.14TD att / 1513.35
64%TD accuracy49%
76%TD defense68%
1:14Control / 158:34
0.16Sub att / 151.80
Targets
StricklandHernandez
Head80%|83%
Body15%|11%
Leg5%|6%
Position
StricklandHernandez
Distance92%|45%
Clinch3%|13%
Ground5%|43%
Ranking evolution Strickland Hernandez
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Sean Strickland
Strickland brings a high-output pressure game on the feet, pushing a steady volume and walking opponents into exchanges. His recent win came against the No. 14-ranked opponent, with his last loss coming to the No. 1 at the top of the division. He's been out for over a year.
Anthony Hernandez
Hernandez carries real control once the fight hits the mat, with a finishing threat from top position that makes his grappling dangerous. He's riding an 8-fight win streak, 5/5 in his last five UFC outings including a win over the No. 9-ranked opponent, and his striking and defense have both been trending upward lately.
Matchup Read
Strickland's volume on the feet runs straight into Hernandez's drive to get the fight to the mat, where his top control and submission threat take over. The central question is whether Strickland can keep it standing and make Hernandez pay for level changes, or whether Hernandez closes distance, grounds him, and turns the control into a finish. Hernandez's rising striking narrows Strickland's margin even before any takedown.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Strickland's output keeps Hernandez at range or just baits the level change.
- Grappling: how quickly Hernandez can convert a takedown into sustained top control and submission hunts.
- Scrambles: whether Strickland can get back up before Hernandez settles into position.
Key Uncertainty
Strickland's 12.4-month layoff clouds the read, since it's hard to know how his timing and output hold up after over a year away from competition.