← UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker
Aleksandre Topuria vs Bekzat Almakhan
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11-22
Aleksandre TopuriaLow Data
58.8%
Model
50.1%
Market
1.92
Odds
+8.6
Edge (pp)
provisional · 1 UFC fightsprovisional · 1 fights
Style Matchup
provisional · 2 UFC fightsprovisional · 2 fights
STRIKING
P21
Striking Initiative
P0
P13
Volume
P0
P68
Striking Efficiency
P14
P11
Range Sniper
P60
P87
Kickboxing
P27
P60
Clinch Striking
P47
P81
Defensive Striking
P8
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P45
Wrestling
P21
P37
Pressure Wrestling
P1
P93
Top Control
P2
P21
Submission
P5
P44
Anti-Wrestling
P0
P56
Grappling Defense
P0
P35
Scrambler
P34
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P24
Power
P100
P55
Finisher
P74
P42
Damage Resistance
P49
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
—
Fast Starter
P65
P27
Pace
P0
P7
Late Fighter
P25
GLOBAL
P61
Versatility
P1
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
TopuriaAlmakhan
2.73Landed / min0.68
2.53Absorbed / min4.29
52%Accuracy41%
70%Defense32%
0.00KD / 151.87
0.00KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
TopuriaAlmakhan
1.00TD / 150.00
2.00TD att / 150.00
50%TD accuracy—
100%TD defense0%
5:02Control / 150:34
0.00Sub att / 150.00
Targets
TopuriaAlmakhan
Head44%|73%
Body46%|27%
Leg10%|0%
Position
TopuriaAlmakhan
Distance85%|82%
Clinch12%|0%
Ground2%|18%
Ranking evolution Topuria Almakhan
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Aleksandre Topuria
Aleksandre Topuria sharp on the outside, managing range well and defensively sound on his feet. His takedown defense keeps exchanges standing, and he holds up under fire with a solid chin. Riding a four-fight win streak and 6-1 overall, coming off a debut UFC win.
Bekzat Almakhan
Bekzat Almakhan carries real finishing momentum, with recent knockout power backing up his 13-2 record. His only loss came against the No. 15-ranked opponent, and he's tested against stiffer competition than his rival. He rebounded with a win over the No. 46-ranked opponent.
Matchup Read
Almakhan owns the tougher recent résumé and the more proven power, but Topuria brings the sharper matchup-specific tools. If Topuria's range control and stand-up defense hold, he can keep Almakhan at the end of his strikes and blunt the knockout threat. Almakhan's path runs through closing distance and landing clean early. Topuria's takedown defense keeps this a standing fight, where his durability matters if he eats a big shot.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Topuria can keep Almakhan at range or Almakhan closes the gap to unload his power.
- Durability: if Almakhan lands clean early, watch how Topuria absorbs it and resets.
- Grappling: whether the fight stays standing or either man is forced to change levels.
Key Uncertainty
Both fighters carry thin UFC bodies of work, Topuria with a single appearance and Almakhan with two, which limits how firmly either man's tools can be read at this level.